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Championship
Referee: Paul Tierney
Middlesbrough
U S S U T
2–2
Full-time
Brentford
U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Brentford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
1,7
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
This season — Championship · 9/10 matches
Win Ø 27%
44%
10%
Points per game
1,6
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
33%
40%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,4
Scored
1,2
1,1
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
8 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 7
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 7
4 Offside 2
21 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 11. · Brentford 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cardiff 10 7 2 1 +8 23
2 Sheffield United 10 7 0 3 +6 21
3 Leeds 10 6 2 2 +10 20
4 Wolves 10 6 2 2 +4 20
5 Preston 10 5 4 1 +7 19
6 Ipswich 9 6 0 3 +6 18
7 Bristol City 10 4 5 1 +7 17
8 Fulham 11 4 5 2 +4 17
9 Aston Villa 9 4 3 2 +6 15
10 Norwich 10 4 3 3 -3 15
11 Middlesbrough 9 4 2 3 +4 14
12 Millwall 10 3 4 3 +3 13
13 Sheffield Weds 10 3 4 3 +0 13
14 QPR 11 3 4 4 -1 13
15 Derby 9 3 3 3 +0 12
16 Nott'm Forest 10 4 0 6 -5 12
17 Hull 10 2 3 5 -2 9
18 Reading 9 2 3 4 -2 9
19 Burton Albion 10 2 3 5 -13 9
20 Brentford 10 1 5 4 -2 8
21 Barnsley 9 2 2 5 -4 8
22 Birmingham 10 2 2 6 -7 8
23 Sunderland 10 1 3 6 -9 6
24 Bolton 10 0 2 8 -17 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Brentford
29′
Y. Barbet 0–1
O. Watkins
36′
🔁 J. Clarke
↦ R. Henry
Half-time 0–1
A. Fletcher 🔁
↦ Adama Traoré
46′
P. Bamford 🔁
↦ M. Johnson
64′
67′
🟨 Henrik Dalsgaard
1–1 M. Braithwaite
B. Gibson
68′
Cyrus Christie 🟨
70′
72′
O. Watkins 1–2
73′
🔁 R. Sawyers
↦ K. Mokotjo
73′
🔁 J. McEachran
↦ N. Yennaris
2–2 Fábio
76′
L. Baker 🔁
↦ M. Braithwaite
79′
Darren Randolph 🟨
90′
Patrick Bamford 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Neal Maupay
90′
🟨 Ollie Watkins
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-4-2
25 D. Randolph G
5 R. Shotton D
2 Fábio D
22 C. Christie D
6 B. Gibson D
16 J. Howson M
8 A. Clayton M
21 M. Johnson M
37 Adama Traoré F
10 M. Braithwaite F
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (7)
18 A. Fletcher
11 P. Bamford
30 L. Baker
7 G. Leadbitter
20 D. Fry
1 D. Konstantopoulos
3 G. Friend

Coach: G. Monk

Brentford

4-3-3
1 D. Bentley G
22 H. Dalsgaard D
29 Y. Barbet D
3 R. Henry D
33 C. Mepham D
12 K. Mokotjo M
8 N. Yennaris M
15 R. Woods M
7 F. Jozefzoon M
9 N. Maupay F
11 O. Watkins M
Bench (7)
20 J. Clarke
19 R. Sawyers
10 J. McEachran
34 M. Sørensen
27 J. Shaibu
28 L. Daniels
25 T. Archibald

Coach: D. Smith

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Paul Tierney · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.