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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Rio Ave

S U T T U

2–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

43%

14%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 15%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

0,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

13 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Vitoria Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+16	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Maritimo	7	5	0	2	+3	15
5	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+0	12
6	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Boavista	8	3	1	4	-1	10
8	Belenenses	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Guimaraes	7	3	1	3	-6	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	-2	9
11	Chaves	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Feirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	4	2	+0	7
14	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-2	6
16	Aves	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Estoril	7	2	0	5	-6	6
18	Moreirense	8	1	3	4	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Boavista	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	-2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Belenenses	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+2	6
12	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Aves	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
5	Feirense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
6	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
9	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-5	4
10	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
12	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-5	3
13	Aves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
14	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Guimaraes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Portimonense	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.