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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Norwich

U S S U S

1–2

Full-time

Derby

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 44%

46%

42%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

31%

33%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

18 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 5. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	10	0	4	+8	30
2	Wolves	13	9	2	2	+11	29
3	Cardiff	13	8	3	2	+8	27
4	Leeds	14	7	2	5	+8	23
5	Norwich	13	6	4	3	-1	22
6	Bristol City	13	5	6	2	+6	21
7	Preston	13	5	6	2	+6	21
8	Derby	12	5	4	3	+4	19
9	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+5	18
10	Fulham	12	4	6	2	+4	18
11	Ipswich	12	6	0	6	+2	18
12	Nott'm Forest	13	6	0	7	-4	18
13	Sheffield Weds	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Hull	13	4	4	5	+4	16
15	Middlesbrough	12	4	4	4	+3	16
16	Millwall	13	4	4	5	+2	16
17	QPR	13	3	6	4	-1	15
18	Brentford	13	2	7	4	-1	13
19	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-3	13
20	Reading	12	3	3	6	-3	12
21	Birmingham	13	3	2	8	-13	11
22	Burton Albion	13	2	4	7	-19	10
23	Sunderland	13	1	6	6	-9	9
24	Bolton	13	1	3	9	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	7	6	0	1	+7	18
2	Wolves	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Cardiff	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Derby	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Millwall	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Preston	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Ipswich	7	4	0	3	+3	12
10	Nott'm Forest	7	4	0	3	+0	12
11	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+6	11
12	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
13	QPR	6	3	2	1	+3	11
14	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
15	Hull	6	3	1	2	+10	10
16	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	-1	10
17	Norwich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
18	Brentford	7	1	5	1	+0	8
19	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-1	8
20	Fulham	6	1	4	1	+0	7
21	Burton Albion	6	2	1	3	-7	7
22	Reading	5	1	2	2	-1	5
23	Bolton	7	1	1	5	-8	4
24	Sunderland	6	0	2	4	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	6	4	1	1	+6	13
2	Cardiff	7	4	1	2	+0	13
3	Norwich	7	4	1	2	-2	13
4	Leeds	7	4	0	3	+2	12
5	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+1	12
6	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Bristol City	6	2	3	1	+2	9
8	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	9
9	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	+1	7
10	Reading	7	2	1	4	-2	7
11	Sunderland	7	1	4	2	-4	7
12	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	-1	6
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Derby	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Hull	7	1	3	3	-6	6
16	Middlesbrough	5	1	2	2	+1	5
17	Brentford	6	1	2	3	-1	5
18	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	QPR	7	0	4	3	-4	4
21	Millwall	6	0	3	3	-3	3
22	Burton Albion	7	0	3	4	-12	3
23	Bolton	6	0	2	4	-9	2
24	Birmingham	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.