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Championship

Referee: Roger East

Derby

S S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Championship · 7/8 matches

Win Ø 28%

43%

13%

Points per game

1,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

57%

38%

Both score Ø 48%

57%

38%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,5

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · Birmingham 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+11	17
2	Wolves	8	5	2	1	+5	17
3	Cardiff	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Preston	8	4	3	1	+6	15
5	Ipswich	7	5	0	2	+4	15
6	Sheffield United	8	5	0	3	+2	15
7	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+5	13
8	Middlesbrough	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Sheffield Weds	8	3	4	1	+3	13
10	Nott'm Forest	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	QPR	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Norwich	8	3	2	3	-4	11
13	Fulham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
14	Derby	7	3	1	3	+0	10
15	Millwall	8	2	3	3	+2	9
16	Aston Villa	7	2	3	2	+1	9
17	Hull	8	2	2	4	-1	8
18	Reading	7	2	2	3	-1	8
19	Burton Albion	8	2	2	4	-9	8
20	Barnsley	7	2	1	4	-3	7
21	Sunderland	8	1	3	4	-5	6
22	Brentford	8	0	4	4	-5	4
23	Birmingham	8	1	1	6	-8	4
24	Bolton	8	0	2	6	-12	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Preston	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	QPR	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Sheffield United	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	9
7	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+7	8
8	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
9	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Hull	4	2	1	1	+6	7
11	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+4	7
12	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Burton Albion	4	2	1	1	+1	7
14	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
15	Derby	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+0	6
17	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
18	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
19	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
20	Reading	3	1	1	1	+0	4
21	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Leeds	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	-1	7
4	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Preston	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Reading	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Derby	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-5	4
16	Middlesbrough	3	1	0	2	+1	3
17	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Bolton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	QPR	4	0	1	3	-4	1
21	Brentford	4	0	1	3	-4	1
22	Hull	4	0	1	3	-7	1
23	Burton Albion	4	0	1	3	-10	1
24	Birmingham	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.