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Eredivisie

Referee: Jochem Kamphuis

Ajax

S S S U T

4–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 53%

69%

36%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

77%

60%

Both score Ø 63%

62%

64%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,6

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

31 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	22	2	3	+37	68
2	Ajax	26	18	4	4	+44	58
3	AZ Alkmaar	26	17	5	4	+25	56
4	Feyenoord	26	12	6	8	+19	42
5	Utrecht	24	11	7	6	+1	40
6	Zwolle	27	11	7	9	-3	40
7	Vitesse	23	10	7	6	+12	37
8	Heracles	27	10	6	11	-12	36
9	Heerenveen	25	9	8	8	-1	35
10	Excelsior	27	10	5	12	-5	35
11	Den Haag	25	9	6	10	-5	33
12	VVV Venlo	27	7	12	8	-6	33
13	Groningen	27	6	11	10	-3	29
14	NAC Breda	27	7	6	14	-13	27
15	Willem II	27	7	5	15	-11	26
16	Sparta Rotterdam	27	5	6	16	-26	21
17	Twente	27	4	6	17	-20	18
18	Roda	27	4	5	18	-33	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+25	37
2	Ajax	13	10	1	2	+23	31
3	Heracles	14	9	3	2	+8	30
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	8	2	3	+10	26
5	Feyenoord	13	7	3	3	+10	24
6	Zwolle	13	7	3	3	+7	24
7	Utrecht	12	6	5	1	+4	23
8	Groningen	14	5	7	2	+7	22
9	Willem II	14	5	3	6	+5	18
10	Den Haag	13	5	3	5	+0	18
11	Heerenveen	13	5	3	5	-4	18
12	Vitesse	11	4	4	3	+4	16
13	NAC Breda	13	5	1	7	-7	16
14	VVV Venlo	14	3	5	6	-5	14
15	Sparta Rotterdam	13	4	2	7	-11	14
16	Twente	13	3	4	6	-6	13
17	Roda	14	3	3	8	-13	12
18	Excelsior	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	1	3	+12	31
2	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	3	1	+15	30
3	Ajax	13	8	3	2	+21	27
4	Excelsior	14	8	1	5	+2	25
5	Vitesse	12	6	3	3	+8	21
6	VVV Venlo	13	4	7	2	-1	19
7	Feyenoord	13	5	3	5	+9	18
8	Heerenveen	12	4	5	3	+3	17
9	Utrecht	12	5	2	5	-3	17
10	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-10	16
11	Den Haag	12	4	3	5	-5	15
12	NAC Breda	14	2	5	7	-6	11
13	Willem II	13	2	2	9	-16	8
14	Groningen	13	1	4	8	-10	7
15	Sparta Rotterdam	14	1	4	9	-15	7
16	Heracles	13	1	3	9	-20	6
17	Twente	14	1	2	11	-14	5
18	Roda	13	1	2	10	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.