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Championship

Referee: David Webb

Middlesbrough

S S U T U

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Championship · 38/39 matches

Win Ø 40%

47%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

47%

44%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

38% Possession 62%

13 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	41	27	8	6	+38	89
2	Cardiff	40	24	8	8	+28	80
3	Fulham	37	20	11	6	+29	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	+23	66
5	Derby	37	17	13	7	+20	64
6	Middlesbrough	38	18	8	12	+18	62
7	Bristol City	40	16	14	10	+11	62
8	Millwall	40	16	14	10	+11	62
9	Sheffield United	41	18	8	15	+7	62
10	Preston	40	15	15	10	+7	60
11	Brentford	40	15	13	12	+9	58
12	Norwich	41	14	13	14	-6	55
13	Ipswich	40	15	8	17	-2	53
14	Leeds	40	15	8	17	-4	53
15	QPR	40	13	11	16	-8	50
16	Sheffield Weds	40	11	14	15	-6	47
17	Nott'm Forest	39	13	7	19	-13	46
18	Hull	40	9	14	17	-6	41
19	Reading	40	9	12	19	-15	39
20	Bolton	40	9	12	19	-25	39
21	Birmingham	40	11	6	23	-27	39
22	Barnsley	40	8	13	19	-18	37
23	Sunderland	40	6	13	21	-29	31
24	Burton Albion	40	7	10	23	-42	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	21	15	3	3	+23	48
2	Wolves	20	14	4	2	+25	46
3	Fulham	19	11	6	2	+21	39
4	Aston Villa	18	11	5	2	+20	38
5	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+13	37
6	Millwall	20	10	7	3	+12	37
7	Middlesbrough	19	11	3	5	+12	36
8	Bristol City	20	10	5	5	+12	35
9	QPR	20	10	5	5	+4	35
10	Derby	18	9	5	4	+13	32
11	Brentford	20	7	10	3	+11	31
12	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	+5	29
13	Leeds	20	8	5	7	+2	29
14	Norwich	21	7	8	6	+1	29
15	Preston	20	7	7	6	+2	28
16	Bolton	20	8	4	8	-3	28
17	Hull	20	6	8	6	+8	26
18	Nott'm Forest	19	8	2	9	-5	26
19	Birmingham	20	8	2	10	-6	26
20	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	+0	25
21	Barnsley	21	4	8	9	-9	20
22	Reading	20	4	7	9	-7	19
23	Sunderland	20	2	6	12	-18	12
24	Burton Albion	20	2	5	13	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	21	13	4	4	+13	43
2	Fulham	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Derby	19	8	8	3	+7	32
4	Preston	20	8	8	4	+5	32
5	Cardiff	19	9	5	5	+5	32
6	Aston Villa	20	8	4	8	+3	28
7	Bristol City	20	6	9	5	-1	27
8	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-2	27
9	Middlesbrough	19	7	5	7	+6	26
10	Norwich	20	7	5	8	-7	26
11	Millwall	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Sheffield United	21	7	4	10	-6	25
13	Leeds	20	7	3	10	-6	24
14	Ipswich	20	7	3	10	-7	24
15	Sheffield Weds	20	5	7	8	-6	22
16	Nott'm Forest	20	5	5	10	-8	20
17	Reading	20	5	5	10	-8	20
18	Burton Albion	20	5	5	10	-19	20
19	Sunderland	20	4	7	9	-11	19
20	Barnsley	19	4	5	10	-9	17
21	QPR	20	3	6	11	-12	15
22	Hull	20	3	6	11	-14	15
23	Birmingham	20	3	4	13	-21	13
24	Bolton	20	1	8	11	-22	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.