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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Birmingham

U S T S T

0–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 13/11 matches

Win Ø 34%

23%

45%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

31%

55%

Both score Ø 42%

38%

45%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

0,6

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 21. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	10	0	4	+8	30
2	Wolves	14	9	2	3	+10	29
3	Cardiff	14	8	4	2	+8	28
4	Bristol City	14	6	6	2	+7	24
5	Leeds	14	7	2	5	+8	23
6	Derby	13	6	4	3	+5	22
7	Norwich	14	6	4	4	-2	22
8	Preston	14	5	6	3	+5	21
9	Ipswich	13	7	0	6	+3	21
10	Nott'm Forest	14	7	0	7	-3	21
11	Middlesbrough	13	5	4	4	+5	19
12	Fulham	13	4	7	2	+4	19
13	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+5	18
14	QPR	14	4	6	4	+0	18
15	Millwall	14	4	5	5	+2	17
16	Sheffield Weds	14	4	5	5	+0	17
17	Hull	14	4	4	6	+3	16
18	Brentford	14	3	7	4	+0	16
19	Barnsley	13	3	4	6	-3	13
20	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
21	Birmingham	13	3	2	8	-13	11
22	Burton Albion	14	2	4	8	-20	10
23	Sunderland	14	1	6	7	-10	9
24	Bolton	14	1	4	9	-17	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	7	6	0	1	+7	18
2	Wolves	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Cardiff	7	4	3	0	+8	15
4	QPR	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Derby	6	4	1	1	+8	13
6	Millwall	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Preston	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Ipswich	7	4	0	3	+3	12
11	Nott'm Forest	7	4	0	3	+0	12
12	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+6	11
13	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
14	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
15	Hull	7	3	1	3	+9	10
16	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	-1	10
17	Norwich	7	2	3	2	+0	9
18	Brentford	7	1	5	1	+0	8
19	Fulham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
20	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-1	8
21	Burton Albion	7	2	1	4	-8	7
22	Reading	6	1	2	3	-3	5
23	Bolton	7	1	1	5	-8	4
24	Sunderland	7	0	2	5	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	7	4	1	2	+5	13
2	Cardiff	7	4	1	2	+0	13
3	Norwich	7	4	1	2	-2	13
4	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	12
5	Leeds	7	4	0	3	+2	12
6	Sheffield United	7	4	0	3	+1	12
7	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	9
9	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	+0	9
10	Nott'm Forest	7	3	0	4	-3	9
11	Derby	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	+3	8
13	Brentford	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	+1	7
15	Reading	7	2	1	4	-2	7
16	Sunderland	7	1	4	2	-4	7
17	Hull	7	1	3	3	-6	6
18	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Millwall	7	0	4	3	-3	4
21	QPR	7	0	4	3	-4	4
22	Bolton	7	0	3	4	-9	3
23	Burton Albion	7	0	3	4	-12	3
24	Birmingham	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.