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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Liverpool

S S S T S

4–3

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 55%

82%

27%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 39%

41%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

2,3

0,9

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

19 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Crystal Palace 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	18	3	1	+40	57
2	Man City	22	17	2	3	+42	53
3	Tottenham	22	16	0	6	+24	48
4	Chelsea	22	14	5	3	+23	47
5	Arsenal	22	12	5	5	+14	41
6	Man United	22	12	5	5	+12	41
7	Watford	22	9	5	8	+0	32
8	Wolves	23	9	5	9	-4	32
9	Leicester	23	9	4	10	+0	31
10	West Ham	22	9	4	9	-2	31
11	Everton	22	8	6	8	+2	30
12	Bournemouth	22	8	3	11	-11	27
13	Brighton	22	7	5	10	-6	26
14	Crystal Palace	22	6	4	12	-8	22
15	Burnley	22	6	3	13	-20	21
16	Southampton	22	4	7	11	-16	19
17	Cardiff	22	5	4	13	-22	19
18	Newcastle	22	4	6	12	-15	18
19	Fulham	22	3	5	14	-29	14
20	Huddersfield	22	2	5	15	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Chelsea	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Man United	10	6	3	1	+8	21
6	Everton	12	6	3	3	+4	21
7	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+8	18
8	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+2	18
10	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Wolves	12	5	2	5	-2	17
12	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
13	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
14	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
16	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
17	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
18	Southampton	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	10	0	2	+16	30
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Man United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Leicester	12	5	2	5	-1	17
7	Watford	11	4	4	3	+2	16
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Newcastle	11	2	5	4	-5	11
13	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
15	Bournemouth	11	3	0	8	-13	9
16	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
17	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.