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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Mainz

U T U U S

2–1

Full-time

Nurnberg

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,7

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

33%

11%

Points per game

1,3

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 53%

61%

44%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

19 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 6

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 11. · Nurnberg 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	18	14	3	1	+27	45
2	Bayern Munich	18	12	3	3	+20	39
3	M'gladbach	18	11	3	4	+19	36
4	RB Leipzig	18	9	4	5	+13	31
5	Ein Frankfurt	18	9	3	6	+13	30
6	Wolfsburg	18	8	4	6	+4	28
7	Hertha	19	7	7	5	+1	28
8	Hoffenheim	18	6	7	5	+7	25
9	Werder Bremen	18	7	4	7	+0	25
10	Leverkusen	18	7	3	8	-4	24
11	Mainz	18	6	6	6	-4	24
12	Schalke 04	19	6	4	9	-3	22
13	Freiburg	18	5	6	7	-6	21
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	6	3	9	-13	21
15	Augsburg	18	3	6	9	-5	15
16	Stuttgart	18	4	2	12	-24	14
17	Hannover	18	2	5	11	-19	11
18	Nurnberg	18	2	5	11	-26	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	M'gladbach	8	8	0	0	+20	24
3	RB Leipzig	10	7	2	1	+17	23
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+10	16
5	Hertha	9	4	4	1	+3	16
6	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Hoffenheim	10	3	4	3	+3	13
8	Freiburg	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Mainz	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Leverkusen	9	4	1	4	-2	13
11	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Schalke 04	9	4	0	5	-1	12
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	0	5	-1	12
15	Stuttgart	9	3	1	5	-10	10
16	Nurnberg	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Augsburg	9	1	4	4	-2	7
18	Hannover	9	2	1	6	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	Wolfsburg	9	5	1	3	+5	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	1	4	+1	13
6	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Hertha	10	3	3	4	-2	12
9	Leverkusen	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Mainz	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Schalke 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	2	3	4	-12	9
13	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	RB Leipzig	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Hannover	9	0	4	5	-11	4
17	Stuttgart	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Nurnberg	8	0	2	6	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.