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Bundesliga
Referee: Bibiana Steinhaus
Freiburg
S T U S T
2–4
Full-time
Hoffenheim
U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 31%
28%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
44%
72%
Both score Ø 75%
61%
89%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
1,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,4
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%
20 Shots 16
8 Shots on target 11
6 Blocked shots 1
7 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 16
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Freiburg 13. · Hoffenheim 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 18 14 3 1 +27 45
2 Bayern Munich 18 12 3 3 +20 39
3 M'gladbach 18 11 3 4 +19 36
4 RB Leipzig 18 9 4 5 +13 31
5 Ein Frankfurt 18 9 3 6 +13 30
6 Wolfsburg 18 8 4 6 +4 28
7 Hertha 19 7 7 5 +1 28
8 Hoffenheim 18 6 7 5 +7 25
9 Werder Bremen 18 7 4 7 +0 25
10 Leverkusen 18 7 3 8 -4 24
11 Mainz 18 6 6 6 -4 24
12 Schalke 04 19 6 4 9 -3 22
13 Freiburg 18 5 6 7 -6 21
14 Fortuna Dusseldorf 18 6 3 9 -13 21
15 Augsburg 18 3 6 9 -5 15
16 Stuttgart 18 4 2 12 -24 14
17 Hannover 18 2 5 11 -19 11
18 Nurnberg 18 2 5 11 -26 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg Hoffenheim
19′
Joelinton 0–1
37′
🟨 Nico Schulz
1–1 L. Höler
42′
Half-time 1–1
50′
🟨 Florian Grillitsch
59′
A. Kramarić 1–2
64′
🔁 S. Posch
↦ Á. Szalai
L. Waldschmidt 🔁
↦ L. Höler
65′
F. Niederlechner 🔁
↦ P. Stenzel
66′
72′
A. Kramarić 1–3
K. Demirbay
Y. Ravet 🔁
↦ J. Gondorf
75′
77′
🔁 N. Amiri
↦ D. Geiger
2–3 F. Niederlechner
C. Günter
77′
85′
K. Demirbay 2–4
Joelinton
89′
🔁 J. Brenet
↦ N. Schulz
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-2-3-1
1 A. Schwolow G
5 M. Gulde D
23 D. Heintz D
30 C. Günter D
15 P. Stenzel D
25 R. Koch M
8 M. Frantz M
20 J. Gondorf M
19 J. Haberer M
18 N. Petersen F
9 L. Höler F
Bench (7)
11 L. Waldschmidt
7 F. Niederlechner
16 Y. Ravet
3 P. Lienhart
13 M. Terrazzino
17 L. Kübler
26 M. Flekken

Coach: C. Streich

Hoffenheim

4-3-3
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
22 K. Vogt D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
16 N. Schulz M
11 F. Grillitsch M
10 K. Demirbay M
8 D. Geiger M
28 Á. Szalai F
27 A. Kramarić F
34 Joelinton F
Bench (7)
38 S. Posch
18 N. Amiri
2 J. Brenet
4 E. Bičakčić
13 L. Bittencourt
19 I. Belfodil
33 A. Stolz

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Bibiana Steinhaus · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.