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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Mainz

S S T S T

0–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,5

3,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,8

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,5

3,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%

6 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 9. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+17	18
2	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Schalke 04	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	-2	11
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	3	2	2	-2	11
7	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Hamburg	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Mainz	6	3	0	3	+3	9
10	Darmstadt	6	2	3	1	-1	9
11	Leverkusen	6	3	0	3	-4	9
12	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	+4	8
13	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Augsburg	6	1	1	4	-3	4
15	Stuttgart	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	M'gladbach	6	1	0	5	-8	3
17	Hoffenheim	6	0	2	4	-6	2
18	Hannover	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	FC Koln	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Hertha	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Schalke 04	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Darmstadt	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+4	4
11	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Hannover	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Stuttgart	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-2	6
6	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	FC Koln	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-4	2
15	Augsburg	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Hannover	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.