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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Welz

Dortmund

S S U S S

3–2

Full-time

Werder Bremen

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 50%

74%

26%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 65%

59%

70%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

24 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Werder Bremen 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	23	3	2	+53	72
2	Dortmund	27	20	4	3	+38	64
3	Hertha	27	14	6	7	+10	48
4	Leverkusen	28	13	6	9	+9	45
5	Mainz	28	13	5	10	+4	44
6	Schalke 04	28	13	5	10	+1	44
7	M'gladbach	27	13	3	11	+10	42
8	Wolfsburg	28	10	8	10	+2	38
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	28	9	9	10	-5	36
10	Hamburg	28	9	7	12	-4	34
11	FC Koln	27	8	9	10	-6	33
12	Stuttgart	28	9	6	13	-11	33
13	Darmstadt	28	6	11	11	-13	29
14	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	-18	28
15	Augsburg	28	6	9	13	-12	27
16	Hoffenheim	27	6	9	12	-13	27
17	Ein Frankfurt	28	6	9	13	-15	27
18	Hannover	28	5	2	21	-30	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	13	0	1	+38	39
2	Dortmund	13	11	2	0	+27	35
3	M'gladbach	14	10	1	3	+16	31
4	Hertha	14	9	4	1	+12	31
5	Wolfsburg	14	8	4	2	+15	28
6	Schalke 04	14	8	3	3	+5	27
7	Mainz	14	8	2	4	+6	26
8	Leverkusen	14	7	3	4	+9	24
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Stuttgart	14	6	1	7	-3	19
11	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	6	4	-2	18
12	Hoffenheim	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Hamburg	14	4	4	6	-2	16
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	-3	16
15	Augsburg	14	2	5	7	-8	11
16	Werder Bremen	13	2	5	6	-8	11
17	Darmstadt	14	1	6	7	-13	9
18	Hannover	14	2	0	12	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+15	33
2	Dortmund	14	9	2	3	+11	29
3	Leverkusen	14	6	3	5	+0	21
4	Darmstadt	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Mainz	14	5	3	6	-2	18
6	Hamburg	14	5	3	6	-2	18
7	Hertha	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	FC Koln	13	4	5	4	-3	17
9	Schalke 04	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Werder Bremen	14	5	2	7	-10	17
11	Augsburg	14	4	4	6	-4	16
12	Stuttgart	14	3	5	6	-8	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	3	5	6	-9	14
14	M'gladbach	13	3	2	8	-6	11
15	Hannover	14	3	2	9	-14	11
16	Hoffenheim	14	2	4	8	-11	10
17	Wolfsburg	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Ein Frankfurt	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.