Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Dortmund
Mainz
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern Munich
|
26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | +51 | 66 |
| 2 |
Dortmund
|
25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | +34 | 58 |
| 3 |
Hertha
|
26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | +9 | 45 |
| 4 |
M'gladbach
|
26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | +11 | 42 |
| 5 |
Schalke 04
|
26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 |
Mainz
|
25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 7 |
Leverkusen
|
26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 39 |
| 8 |
Wolfsburg
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +5 | 37 |
| 9 |
FC Koln
|
26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 10 |
FC Ingolstadt 04
|
26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 |
Stuttgart
|
26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 |
Hamburg
|
26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 |
Augsburg
|
26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 |
Darmstadt
|
26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 |
Werder Bremen
|
26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 27 |
| 16 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -15 | 24 |
| 17 |
Hoffenheim
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -15 | 24 |
| 18 |
Hannover
|
26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -26 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
H. Mkhitaryan
M
P. Aubameyang
F
L. Karius
G
S. Bell
D
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Dortmund
Bayern Munich
Darmstadt
Dortmund
Dortmund
Hoffenheim
Leverkusen
Dortmund
Dortmund
Hannover
Deniz Aytekin · 80 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.