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Bundesliga
Referee: Harm Osmers
1–1
Full-time
Leverkusen
S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Ingolstadt 04 Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 29%
26%
32%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
48%
61%
Both score Ø 59%
52%
65%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
1,7
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
8 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 6
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Ingolstadt 04 17. · Leverkusen 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 31 22 7 2 +62 73
2 RB Leipzig 31 19 6 6 +25 63
3 Hoffenheim 31 15 13 3 +26 58
4 Dortmund 31 16 9 6 +30 57
5 Hertha 31 14 4 13 +1 46
6 FC Koln 32 11 12 9 +7 45
7 Werder Bremen 32 13 6 13 +0 45
8 Freiburg 31 13 5 13 -17 44
9 M'gladbach 31 12 6 13 -4 42
10 Schalke 04 31 11 8 12 +7 41
11 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 8 12 -3 41
12 Leverkusen 31 10 6 15 -6 36
13 Augsburg 31 9 8 14 -16 35
14 Mainz 31 9 6 16 -11 33
15 Wolfsburg 31 9 6 16 -19 33
16 Hamburg 31 9 6 16 -29 33
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 31 8 5 18 -21 29
18 Darmstadt 31 7 3 21 -32 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Ingolstadt 04 Leverkusen
Mathew Leckie 🟨
23′
35′
🟨 Charles Aránguiz
Half-time 0–0
S. Kittel 🔁
↦ M. Leckie
46′
60′
🟨 Kevin Volland
68′
🟨 Benjamin Henrichs
1–0 S. Kittel
D. Lezcano
73′
74′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ A. Mehmedi
77′
🔁 K. Kampl
↦ C. Aránguiz
78′
K. Havertz 1–1
Wendell
S. Lex 🔁
↦ M. Christiansen
84′
R. Leipertz 🔁
↦ M. Suttner
92′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

3-4-2-1
35 M. Hansen G
34 M. Matip D
29 M. Suttner D
18 R. Brégerie D
32 M. Tisserand D
33 F. Hadergjonaj D
36 A. Cohen M
10 P. Groß F
19 M. Christiansen M
11 D. Lezcano F
7 M. Leckie M
Bench (7)
21 S. Kittel
14 S. Lex
13 R. Leipertz
1 Ø. Nyland
3 A. Jung
12 G. Leo
16 L. Hinterseer

Coach: M. Walpurgis

Leverkusen

4-4-2
1 B. Leno G
6 A. Dragović D
18 Wendell D
16 T. Jedvaj D
20 C. Aránguiz M
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
39 B. Henrichs D
29 K. Havertz M
11 S. Kießling F
14 A. Mehmedi M
31 K. Volland F
Bench (7)
9 L. Bailey
44 K. Kampl
7 J. Hernández
13 R. Hilbert
17 J. Pohjanpalo
28 R. Özcan
38 K. Bellarabi

Coach: T. Korkut

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.