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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Barcelona

T S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Villarreal

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 61%

71%

51%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

74%

40%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

46%

Average goals

3,9

2,3

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

67% Possession 33%

20 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Villarreal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	35	25	6	4	+71	81
2	Real Madrid	34	25	6	3	+53	81
3	Ath Madrid	36	22	8	6	+41	74
4	Sevilla	36	20	9	7	+18	69
5	Villarreal	35	18	9	8	+24	63
6	Ath Bilbao	35	19	5	11	+13	62
7	Sociedad	36	19	5	12	+6	62
8	Eibar	36	15	9	12	+8	54
9	Espanol	35	13	11	11	-2	50
10	Alaves	35	12	12	11	-5	48
11	Celta	34	13	5	16	-8	44
12	Malaga	35	11	9	15	-7	42
13	Valencia	35	11	7	17	-11	40
14	Las Palmas	36	10	9	17	-15	39
15	Betis	35	10	7	18	-19	37
16	La Coruna	35	7	11	17	-20	32
17	Leganes	35	7	9	19	-23	30
18	Sp Gijon	36	6	9	21	-31	27
19	Granada	35	4	8	23	-46	20
20	Osasuna	35	3	10	22	-47	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	13	4	1	+25	43
2	Sevilla	18	13	4	1	+18	43
3	Barcelona	17	13	3	1	+42	42
4	Ath Bilbao	18	13	3	2	+18	42
5	Ath Madrid	18	13	2	3	+24	41
6	Villarreal	18	11	3	4	+17	36
7	Sociedad	18	10	4	4	+6	34
8	Las Palmas	18	9	6	3	+11	33
9	Eibar	18	10	3	5	+9	33
10	Malaga	17	9	2	6	+6	29
11	Espanol	18	8	5	5	+5	29
12	Celta	17	9	1	7	+1	28
13	Valencia	17	7	4	6	-1	25
14	Betis	18	6	6	6	-2	24
15	La Coruna	17	6	5	6	+2	23
16	Alaves	17	5	8	4	-5	23
17	Sp Gijon	18	5	3	10	-12	18
18	Leganes	17	4	5	8	-5	17
19	Granada	17	4	4	9	-10	16
20	Osasuna	18	1	7	10	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	3	3	+29	39
2	Real Madrid	16	12	2	2	+28	38
3	Ath Madrid	18	9	6	3	+17	33
4	Sociedad	18	9	1	8	+0	28
5	Villarreal	17	7	6	4	+7	27
6	Sevilla	18	7	5	6	+0	26
7	Alaves	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Eibar	18	5	6	7	-1	21
9	Espanol	17	5	6	6	-7	21
10	Ath Bilbao	17	6	2	9	-5	20
11	Celta	17	4	4	9	-9	16
12	Valencia	18	4	3	11	-10	15
13	Malaga	18	2	7	9	-13	13
14	Betis	17	4	1	12	-17	13
15	Leganes	18	3	4	11	-18	13
16	Sp Gijon	18	1	6	11	-19	9
17	La Coruna	18	1	6	11	-22	9
18	Osasuna	17	2	3	12	-30	9
19	Las Palmas	18	1	3	14	-26	6
20	Granada	18	0	4	14	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.