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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Dortmund

T S S U U

2–2

Full-time

Freiburg

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

26%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

68%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

70% Possession 30%

12 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · Freiburg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	19	15	2	2	+30	47
2	Ein Frankfurt	20	9	6	5	+6	33
3	Leverkusen	19	8	7	4	+12	31
4	Schalke 04	19	8	7	4	+5	31
5	RB Leipzig	19	9	4	6	+3	31
6	M'gladbach	20	9	4	7	-2	31
7	Dortmund	19	8	6	5	+15	30
8	Augsburg	19	7	6	6	+3	27
9	Hoffenheim	19	7	6	6	+2	27
10	Hannover	19	7	6	6	-1	27
11	Hertha	19	6	7	6	+0	25
12	Freiburg	19	5	8	6	-13	23
13	Wolfsburg	19	3	11	5	-2	20
14	Stuttgart	19	6	2	11	-8	20
15	Mainz	19	5	5	9	-9	20
16	Werder Bremen	19	3	7	9	-9	16
17	Hamburg	19	4	3	12	-13	15
18	FC Koln	19	3	3	13	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	M'gladbach	10	6	2	2	+4	20
4	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Stuttgart	9	6	1	2	+5	19
6	Hannover	9	5	3	1	+7	18
7	Hoffenheim	10	5	3	2	+5	18
8	Freiburg	10	4	5	1	+3	17
9	Leverkusen	9	4	4	1	+7	16
10	Augsburg	10	4	4	2	+4	16
11	Mainz	10	5	1	4	+0	16
12	Hertha	10	4	3	3	+1	15
13	Dortmund	9	4	2	3	+9	14
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	6	2	+0	12
15	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	+0	12
16	Hamburg	10	3	2	5	-3	11
17	Werder Bremen	9	2	3	4	-3	9
18	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	1	2	+9	22
2	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	Dortmund	10	4	4	2	+6	16
4	Leverkusen	10	4	3	3	+5	15
5	Schalke 04	9	3	3	3	-1	12
6	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	M'gladbach	10	3	2	5	-6	11
8	RB Leipzig	10	3	2	5	-6	11
9	Hertha	9	2	4	3	-1	10
10	Hoffenheim	9	2	3	4	-3	9
11	Hannover	10	2	3	5	-8	9
12	Wolfsburg	9	1	5	3	-2	8
13	Werder Bremen	10	1	4	5	-6	7
14	Freiburg	9	1	3	5	-16	6
15	FC Koln	10	1	2	7	-11	5
16	Mainz	9	0	4	5	-9	4
17	Hamburg	9	1	1	7	-10	4
18	Stuttgart	10	0	1	9	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.