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Bundesliga

Referee: Bibiana Steinhaus

Mainz

T S T S T

3–3

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

2,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 47%

32%

61%

Points per game

1,2

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

52%

Both score Ø 47%

55%

39%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

9 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · RB Leipzig 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	22	5	4	+50	71
2	Dortmund	31	21	6	4	+34	69
3	RB Leipzig	31	19	7	5	+35	64
4	Ein Frankfurt	31	15	9	7	+23	54
5	M'gladbach	31	15	6	10	+11	51
6	Leverkusen	31	16	3	12	+8	51
7	Hoffenheim	31	13	11	7	+21	50
8	Wolfsburg	31	14	7	10	+6	49
9	Werder Bremen	31	12	10	9	+7	46
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	31	12	4	15	-16	40
11	Hertha	31	9	10	12	-7	37
12	Mainz	31	10	6	15	-15	36
13	Freiburg	31	7	11	13	-16	32
14	Augsburg	31	8	7	16	-12	31
15	Schalke 04	31	8	6	17	-18	30
16	Stuttgart	31	6	6	19	-39	24
17	Nurnberg	31	3	10	18	-32	19
18	Hannover	31	4	6	21	-40	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Bayern Munich	15	11	3	1	+29	36
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	5	1	+25	35
4	M'gladbach	15	9	2	4	+11	29
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	4	4	+13	28
6	Hoffenheim	16	7	5	4	+9	26
7	Werder Bremen	15	7	5	3	+8	26
8	Mainz	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Leverkusen	15	8	1	6	+2	25
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	8	0	8	-2	24
11	Wolfsburg	15	6	5	4	+4	23
12	Freiburg	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Hertha	15	5	6	4	+1	21
14	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	+2	19
15	Stuttgart	16	5	4	7	-8	19
16	Nurnberg	16	3	7	6	-2	16
17	Schalke 04	15	4	1	10	-12	13
18	Hannover	16	4	1	11	-14	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	2	3	+21	35
2	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Dortmund	15	8	4	3	+8	28
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	5	3	+10	26
5	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+6	26
6	Wolfsburg	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Hoffenheim	15	6	6	3	+12	24
8	M'gladbach	16	6	4	6	+0	22
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Schalke 04	16	4	5	7	-6	17
11	Hertha	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	4	7	-14	16
13	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	12
14	Freiburg	16	2	5	9	-17	11
15	Mainz	16	3	2	11	-22	11
16	Hannover	15	0	5	10	-26	5
17	Stuttgart	15	1	2	12	-31	5
18	Nurnberg	15	0	3	12	-30	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.