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Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

RB Leipzig

T S U S T

2–2

Full-time

Mainz

U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

12 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · Mainz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	RB Leipzig	14	8	2	4	+3	26
3	Schalke 04	14	7	4	3	+6	25
4	Leverkusen	15	6	6	3	+10	24
5	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	-2	24
6	Hoffenheim	14	6	5	3	+7	23
7	Dortmund	14	6	4	4	+13	22
8	Augsburg	14	6	4	4	+5	22
9	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+2	22
10	Hannover	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Wolfsburg	14	3	8	3	+1	17
12	Hertha	14	4	5	5	-2	17
13	Stuttgart	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Mainz	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Hamburg	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Freiburg	14	2	6	6	-16	12
17	Werder Bremen	14	2	5	7	-7	11
18	FC Koln	14	0	3	11	-21	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	RB Leipzig	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Stuttgart	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Hoffenheim	8	4	3	1	+7	15
5	Schalke 04	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Leverkusen	7	3	4	0	+8	13
7	Mainz	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	M'gladbach	7	4	1	2	+0	13
9	Hannover	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+3	11
11	Wolfsburg	8	2	5	1	+2	11
12	Freiburg	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Hertha	8	3	2	3	-1	11
14	Dortmund	6	3	1	2	+9	10
15	Hamburg	7	3	1	3	+0	10
16	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	1	3	-1	7
17	Werder Bremen	7	2	1	4	-3	7
18	FC Koln	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	3	1	+3	15
2	Bayern Munich	7	4	1	2	+5	13
3	Dortmund	8	3	3	2	+4	12
4	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+2	11
5	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	-2	11
7	Schalke 04	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	RB Leipzig	8	3	1	4	-5	10
9	Hoffenheim	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Hannover	8	2	2	4	-6	8
11	Wolfsburg	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Werder Bremen	7	0	4	3	-4	4
14	Hamburg	7	1	1	5	-7	4
15	Mainz	6	0	2	4	-8	2
16	FC Koln	8	0	2	6	-12	2
17	Stuttgart	8	0	1	7	-11	1
18	Freiburg	6	0	1	5	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.