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La Liga

Referee: Antonio Mateu

Ath Bilbao

T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,8

0,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+3,0

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,8

0,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 22

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 14. · Real Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Ath Madrid	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+3	12
4	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+12	10
5	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+6	10
6	Espanol	5	3	0	2	-5	9
7	Eibar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Valencia	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	La Coruna	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	+1	5
12	Sp Gijon	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Betis	4	1	2	1	-4	5
14	Ath Bilbao	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Levante	5	0	3	2	-4	3
16	Getafe	5	1	0	4	-5	3
17	Granada	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Las Palmas	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Malaga	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Sevilla	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Espanol	3	2	0	1	-4	6
7	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Getafe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Valencia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Malaga	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Levante	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	La Coruna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sp Gijon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Las Palmas	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Granada	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Celta	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Barcelona	3	2	0	1	-1	6
4	Eibar	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Real Madrid	2	1	1	0	+6	4
6	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Sp Gijon	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Granada	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Espanol	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Las Palmas	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Betis	2	0	1	1	-5	1
18	Malaga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.