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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Ath Madrid

S T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,5

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,2

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,5

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

18 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 5. · Real Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+7	16
2	Celta	7	4	3	0	+8	15
3	Barcelona	7	5	0	2	+3	15
4	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+13	14
5	Ath Madrid	6	4	0	2	+6	12
6	La Coruna	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Eibar	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Betis	7	3	2	2	-2	11
9	Valencia	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	Espanol	7	3	0	4	-9	9
11	Sp Gijon	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Sevilla	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Getafe	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Vallecano	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Malaga	7	1	3	3	-1	6
18	Levante	7	1	3	3	-6	6
19	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Granada	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Celta	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-5	6
10	Malaga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Valencia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	La Coruna	3	1	1	1	+2	4
14	Betis	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Eibar	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Las Palmas	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Sociedad	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sp Gijon	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Eibar	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Celta	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Sp Gijon	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Barcelona	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Granada	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Vallecano	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Espanol	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Las Palmas	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Ath Bilbao	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Levante	3	0	1	2	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.