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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Ajax

S S U S S

1–2

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

2,5

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+1,7

This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 72%

86%

57%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 43%

14%

71%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

2,6

2,4

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · PSV Eindhoven 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+16	19
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+10	18
4	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	PSV Eindhoven	7	4	2	1	+10	14
6	Nijmegen	8	4	1	3	+1	13
7	Roda	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Vitesse	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Groningen	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Excelsior	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Heerenveen	8	1	4	3	-4	7
14	Willem II	8	1	3	4	-4	6
15	Twente	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Den Haag	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Cambuur	8	0	4	4	-16	4
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Heracles	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Groningen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Vitesse	3	3	0	0	+9	9
6	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+9	9
7	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Roda	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Utrecht	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Willem II	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Twente	3	1	1	1	-2	4
15	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Den Haag	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Feyenoord	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Heracles	4	2	0	2	+2	6
5	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	2	1	+5	5
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
8	Cambuur	4	0	3	1	-3	3
9	Roda	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Vitesse	4	0	2	2	-3	2
12	Twente	4	0	2	2	-3	2
13	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
14	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Excelsior	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Heerenveen	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Groningen	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.