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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Barcelona

U U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+2,3

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 73%

77%

69%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

58%

31%

Both score Ø 37%

42%

31%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,5

0,4

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 1

2 Offside 6

16 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	26	20	6	0	+56	66
2	Ath Madrid	26	18	7	1	+34	61
3	Real Madrid	27	16	6	5	+36	54
4	Valencia	26	15	5	6	+20	50
5	Sevilla	27	14	3	10	-4	45
6	Villarreal	27	12	5	10	+4	41
7	Girona	27	11	7	9	+2	40
8	Eibar	27	11	6	10	-5	39
9	Betis	26	11	4	11	-7	37
10	Getafe	27	9	9	9	+8	36
11	Celta	26	10	5	11	+5	35
12	Leganes	27	9	6	12	-9	33
13	Ath Bilbao	27	7	11	9	-4	32
14	Espanol	27	7	11	9	-9	32
15	Alaves	26	10	1	15	-14	31
16	Sociedad	26	8	6	12	+0	30
17	Levante	27	3	12	12	-20	21
18	Las Palmas	26	5	5	16	-34	20
19	La Coruna	27	4	7	16	-32	19
20	Malaga	27	3	4	20	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	2	0	+31	32
2	Ath Madrid	13	9	4	0	+17	31
3	Real Madrid	14	9	2	3	+24	29
4	Valencia	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Getafe	14	8	3	3	+15	27
6	Sevilla	13	8	3	2	+8	27
7	Eibar	14	7	3	4	+9	24
8	Villarreal	13	7	2	4	+9	23
9	Girona	13	7	2	4	+9	23
10	Espanol	14	6	4	4	+1	22
11	Alaves	14	7	1	6	-2	22
12	Leganes	13	6	3	4	+1	21
13	Betis	14	6	3	5	-3	21
14	Celta	12	5	4	3	+4	19
15	Ath Bilbao	13	4	7	2	+3	19
16	Sociedad	13	5	3	5	+7	18
17	Las Palmas	13	4	2	7	-11	14
18	La Coruna	14	3	4	7	-8	13
19	Levante	14	2	6	6	-8	12
20	Malaga	13	2	3	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	10	4	0	+25	34
2	Ath Madrid	13	9	3	1	+17	30
3	Real Madrid	13	7	4	2	+12	25
4	Valencia	13	6	3	4	+5	21
5	Villarreal	14	5	3	6	-5	18
6	Sevilla	14	6	0	8	-12	18
7	Girona	14	4	5	5	-7	17
8	Celta	14	5	1	8	+1	16
9	Betis	12	5	1	6	-4	16
10	Eibar	13	4	3	6	-14	15
11	Ath Bilbao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
12	Sociedad	13	3	3	7	-7	12
13	Leganes	14	3	3	8	-10	12
14	Espanol	13	1	7	5	-10	10
15	Getafe	13	1	6	6	-7	9
16	Alaves	12	3	0	9	-12	9
17	Levante	13	1	6	6	-12	9
18	Las Palmas	13	1	3	9	-23	6
19	La Coruna	13	1	3	9	-24	6
20	Malaga	14	1	1	12	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.