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Eredivisie
Referee: Bjorn Kuipers
Vitesse
S S S T U
3–2
Full-time
Ajax
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitesse Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
This season — Eredivisie · 22/25 matches
Win Ø 57%
41%
72%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
64%
76%
Both score Ø 67%
73%
60%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,8
2,6
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%
10 Shots 20
7 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vitesse 8. · Ajax 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 26 22 2 2 +42 68
2 Ajax 25 18 4 3 +45 58
3 AZ Alkmaar 26 17 5 4 +25 56
4 Feyenoord 26 12 6 8 +19 42
5 Utrecht 24 11 7 6 +1 40
6 Zwolle 26 11 7 8 -1 40
7 Heerenveen 25 9 8 8 -1 35
8 Vitesse 22 9 7 6 +11 34
9 Den Haag 23 9 6 8 -2 33
10 VVV Venlo 26 7 12 7 -5 33
11 Heracles 26 9 6 11 -13 33
12 Excelsior 26 9 5 12 -6 32
13 Groningen 25 5 10 10 -5 25
14 NAC Breda 26 6 6 14 -15 24
15 Willem II 26 6 5 15 -16 23
16 Twente 25 4 5 16 -19 17
17 Roda 26 4 5 17 -31 17
18 Sparta Rotterdam 25 3 6 16 -29 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vitesse Ajax
1–0 N. Foor
R. Beerens
16′
Lassana Faye 🟨
22′
Half-time 1–0
V. Karavaev 🔁
↦ L. Faye
46′
2–0 B. Linssen
57′
Bryan Linssen 🟨
59′
60′
🔁 A. Younes
↦ J. Kluivert
60′
🔁 M. Cassierra
↦ M. Wöber
61′
M. Cassierra 2–1
H. Ziyech
M. van der Werff 🔁
↦ R. Beerens
66′
70′
🟨 Hakim Ziyech
3–1 B. Linssen
G. Kashia
71′
78′
🔁 N. Mazraoui
↦ D. van de Beek
L. Castaignos 🔁
↦ B. Linssen
83′
85′
S. de Jong 3–2
A. Younes
Luc Castaignos 🟨
89′
90′
🟨 Matthijs De Ligt
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Vitesse

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
37 G. Kashia D
2 F. Dabo D
5 M. Miazga D
43 L. Faye D
7 R. Beerens F
17 T. Serero M
25 N. Foor M
19 M. Mount M
9 T. Matavž F
11 B. Linssen F
Bench (7)
8 V. Karavaev
3 M. van der Werff
14 L. Castaignos
10 T. Bruns
16 M. van Bergen
23 M. Ali
24 J. Houwen

Coach: H. Fraser

Ajax

4-3-3
1 A. Onana G
31 N. Tagliafico D
3 J. Veltman D
4 M. de Ligt D
5 M. Wöber D
20 L. Schöne M
23 S. de Jong M
10 H. Ziyech M
6 D. van de Beek M
45 J. Kluivert F
7 David Neres F
Bench (7)
11 A. Younes
19 M. Cassierra
40 N. Mazraoui
15 C. Eiting
33 K. Lamprou
43 R. Kristensen
44 M. Bakker

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Bjorn Kuipers · 97 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.