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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Malaga
S S S S U
0–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
3,2
5,0
Scored
2,2
3,7
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+2,3
This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 54%
32%
76%
Points per game
1,2
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
49%
84%
Both score Ø 65%
54%
76%
Average goals
2,8
3,9
Scored
1,3
2,8
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%
22 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 6
9 Corners 7
2 Offside 5
6 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malaga 11. · Real Madrid 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 37 28 6 3 +63 90
2 Barcelona 37 27 6 4 +77 87
3 Ath Madrid 38 23 9 6 +43 78
4 Sevilla 38 21 9 8 +20 72
5 Villarreal 38 19 10 9 +23 67
6 Sociedad 38 19 7 12 +6 64
7 Ath Bilbao 38 19 6 13 +10 63
8 Espanol 38 15 11 12 -1 56
9 Alaves 38 14 13 11 -2 55
10 Eibar 37 15 9 13 +7 54
11 Malaga 37 12 10 15 -4 46
12 Valencia 38 13 7 18 -9 46
13 Celta 38 13 6 19 -16 45
14 Las Palmas 38 10 9 19 -21 39
15 Betis 38 10 9 19 -23 39
16 La Coruna 38 8 12 18 -18 36
17 Leganes 38 8 11 19 -19 35
18 Sp Gijon 38 7 10 21 -30 31
19 Osasuna 38 4 10 24 -54 22
20 Granada 38 4 8 26 -52 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Malaga Real Madrid
2′
Cristiano Ronaldo 0–1
Isco
Half-time 0–2
55′
K. Benzema 0–2
R. Varane
Carlos Kameni 🟨
56′
Jony 🟨
57′
G. Castro 🔁
↦ Keko
60′
66′
🔁 J. Rodríguez
↦ Isco
66′
🔁 M. Kovačić
↦ Casemiro
Charles 🔁
↦ Sandro Ramírez
69′
Duda 🔁
↦ Jony
72′
73′
🔁 Álvaro Morata
↦ K. Benzema
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Malaga

4-1-4-1
1 C. Kameni
23 Miguel Torres D
24 Luis Hernández D
4 M. Villanueva D
15 F. Ricca D
6 Ignacio Camacho M
20 Keko M
21 Jony M
14 Recio M
31 Pablo Fornals M
19 Sandro Ramírez F
Bench (7)
11 G. Castro
9 Charles
17 Duda
3 M. Demichelis
7 Juan Carlos
8 Michael Santos
13 D. Boyko

Coach: Míchel

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
1 K. Navas G
4 Sergio Ramos D
12 Marcelo D
23 Danilo D
5 R. Varane D
19 L. Modrić M
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
22 Isco M
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F
9 K. Benzema F
Bench (7)
10 J. Rodríguez
16 M. Kovačić
21 Álvaro Morata
6 Nacho
13 Kiko Casilla
17 Lucas Vázquez
20 Marco Asensio

Coach: Z. Zidane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.