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Ligue 1

Referee: Mikael Lesage

Toulouse

S U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Guingamp

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Guingamp

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 27%

22%

32%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

41%

54%

Both score Ø 49%

49%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 18. · Guingamp 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	37	29	5	3	+79	92
2	Monaco	37	23	8	6	+37	77
3	Lyon	37	22	9	6	+43	75
4	Marseille	37	21	11	5	+32	74
5	Rennes	37	16	9	12	+6	57
6	Nice	37	15	9	13	+2	54
7	Bordeaux	37	15	7	15	+1	52
8	St Etienne	37	14	10	13	-8	52
9	Montpellier	37	11	17	9	+3	50
10	Nantes	37	13	10	14	-6	49
11	Guingamp	37	12	11	14	-10	47
12	Amiens	37	12	9	16	-4	45
13	Dijon	37	12	9	16	-19	45
14	Angers	37	9	14	14	-9	41
15	Lille	37	10	8	19	-21	38
16	Strasbourg	37	9	11	17	-22	38
17	Caen	37	10	7	20	-25	37
18	Toulouse	37	8	10	19	-17	34
19	Troyes	37	9	6	22	-24	33
20	Metz	37	6	8	23	-38	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	17	1	1	+55	52
2	Monaco	19	15	3	1	+30	48
3	Marseille	18	11	5	2	+24	38
4	Lyon	18	11	5	2	+19	38
5	Dijon	18	10	3	5	+6	33
6	Nice	19	10	3	6	+6	33
7	Guingamp	19	8	7	4	+6	31
8	Bordeaux	19	9	4	6	+4	31
9	Amiens	19	8	5	6	+7	29
10	St Etienne	18	7	7	4	+0	28
11	Strasbourg	19	7	6	6	+0	27
12	Rennes	18	8	3	7	-1	27
13	Caen	18	7	4	7	-2	25
14	Nantes	18	7	4	7	-3	25
15	Montpellier	19	5	9	5	+1	24
16	Troyes	18	7	3	8	-2	24
17	Lille	19	6	6	7	-3	24
18	Toulouse	18	6	5	7	+1	23
19	Angers	19	5	7	7	-5	22
20	Metz	18	3	4	11	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	12	4	2	+24	40
2	Lyon	19	11	4	4	+24	37
3	Marseille	19	10	6	3	+8	36
4	Rennes	19	8	6	5	+7	30
5	Monaco	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Montpellier	18	6	8	4	+2	26
7	Nantes	19	6	6	7	-3	24
8	St Etienne	19	7	3	9	-8	24
9	Bordeaux	18	6	3	9	-3	21
10	Nice	18	5	6	7	-4	21
11	Angers	18	4	7	7	-4	19
12	Amiens	18	4	4	10	-11	16
13	Guingamp	18	4	4	10	-16	16
14	Lille	18	4	2	12	-18	14
15	Metz	19	3	4	12	-21	13
16	Caen	19	3	3	13	-23	12
17	Dijon	19	2	6	11	-25	12
18	Toulouse	19	2	5	12	-18	11
19	Strasbourg	18	2	5	11	-22	11
20	Troyes	19	2	3	14	-22	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.