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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez

Ath Madrid

U S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 57%

55%

59%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

23%

50%

Both score Ø 41%

41%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

34% Possession 66%

11 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 16

7 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 2. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	15	5	2	+37	50
2	Ath Madrid	22	12	8	2	+18	44
3	Real Madrid	22	13	3	6	+11	42
4	Sevilla	22	10	6	6	+13	36
5	Getafe	23	9	8	6	+9	35
6	Betis	22	9	5	8	+0	32
7	Alaves	22	9	5	8	-5	32
8	Valencia	22	6	12	4	+4	30
9	Sociedad	22	8	6	8	+2	30
10	Eibar	22	7	8	7	-1	29
11	Levante	22	7	6	9	-8	27
12	Ath Bilbao	22	5	11	6	-5	26
13	Leganes	22	6	8	8	-5	26
14	Valladolid	23	6	8	9	-9	26
15	Espanol	22	7	4	11	-11	25
16	Celta	23	6	6	11	-4	24
17	Girona	22	5	9	8	-8	24
18	Vallecano	22	6	5	11	-12	23
19	Villarreal	23	3	11	9	-8	20
20	Huesca	22	3	6	13	-18	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+23	27
3	Real Madrid	11	8	1	2	+13	25
4	Sevilla	10	7	2	1	+12	23
5	Eibar	12	6	4	2	+9	22
6	Betis	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Getafe	11	6	1	4	+9	19
8	Alaves	10	5	4	1	+4	19
9	Espanol	10	6	0	4	-2	18
10	Leganes	10	4	5	1	+3	17
11	Ath Bilbao	11	4	5	2	+0	17
12	Valencia	11	3	7	1	+6	16
13	Celta	12	4	4	4	+4	16
14	Levante	11	4	3	4	-4	15
15	Sociedad	11	3	4	4	-1	13
16	Vallecano	12	3	4	5	-6	13
17	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-3	12
18	Girona	11	2	5	4	-5	11
19	Huesca	11	2	4	5	-3	10
20	Villarreal	12	1	6	5	-4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Sociedad	11	5	2	4	+3	17
3	Real Madrid	11	5	2	4	-2	17
4	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+0	16
5	Ath Madrid	11	3	6	2	+3	15
6	Valencia	11	3	5	3	-2	14
7	Valladolid	12	3	5	4	-6	14
8	Sevilla	12	3	4	5	+1	13
9	Girona	11	3	4	4	-3	13
10	Alaves	12	4	1	7	-9	13
11	Levante	11	3	3	5	-4	12
12	Betis	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Villarreal	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Vallecano	10	3	1	6	-6	10
15	Ath Bilbao	11	1	6	4	-5	9
16	Leganes	12	2	3	7	-8	9
17	Celta	11	2	2	7	-8	8
18	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-9	7
19	Eibar	10	1	4	5	-10	7
20	Huesca	11	1	2	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.