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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Villarreal

T T S S T

4–4

Full-time

Barcelona

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,8

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 47%

21%

72%

Points per game

1,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

55%

62%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

59%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,6

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

32% Possession 68%

16 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 7

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 17. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	21	6	2	+48	69
2	Ath Madrid	30	18	8	4	+26	62
3	Real Madrid	29	18	3	8	+18	57
4	Getafe	30	12	11	7	+10	47
5	Alaves	29	12	8	9	-4	44
6	Sevilla	29	12	7	10	+10	43
7	Valencia	29	9	16	4	+8	43
8	Ath Bilbao	29	9	13	7	-2	40
9	Betis	29	11	7	11	-4	40
10	Sociedad	29	9	10	10	+0	37
11	Eibar	29	8	12	9	-2	36
12	Leganes	29	9	9	11	-5	36
13	Espanol	30	9	8	13	-11	35
14	Girona	30	8	10	12	-9	34
15	Levante	29	8	8	13	-11	32
16	Valladolid	29	7	9	13	-16	30
17	Villarreal	29	6	11	12	-5	29
18	Celta	29	7	7	15	-10	28
19	Vallecano	29	6	6	17	-21	24
20	Huesca	29	5	7	17	-20	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	15	12	2	1	+18	38
2	Barcelona	15	11	3	1	+28	36
3	Real Madrid	15	10	1	4	+14	31
4	Sevilla	14	8	3	3	+12	27
5	Eibar	15	7	5	3	+9	26
6	Espanol	15	8	2	5	+0	26
7	Getafe	14	8	1	5	+9	25
8	Ath Bilbao	15	6	7	2	+3	25
9	Leganes	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Alaves	14	6	6	2	+2	24
11	Valencia	15	4	10	1	+8	22
12	Betis	15	6	4	5	-2	22
13	Celta	15	5	4	6	+1	19
14	Sociedad	14	4	5	5	+0	17
15	Levante	14	4	4	6	-7	16
16	Villarreal	15	3	6	6	+0	15
17	Vallecano	15	3	5	7	-9	14
18	Huesca	14	3	4	7	-5	13
19	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-8	13
20	Girona	15	2	6	7	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	10	3	1	+20	33
2	Real Madrid	14	8	2	4	+4	26
3	Ath Madrid	15	6	6	3	+8	24
4	Getafe	16	4	10	2	+1	22
5	Girona	15	6	4	5	+0	22
6	Valencia	14	5	6	3	+0	21
7	Sociedad	15	5	5	5	+0	20
8	Alaves	15	6	2	7	-6	20
9	Betis	14	5	3	6	-2	18
10	Valladolid	15	4	5	6	-8	17
11	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-2	16
12	Levante	15	4	4	7	-4	16
13	Ath Bilbao	14	3	6	5	-5	15
14	Villarreal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
15	Leganes	15	3	3	9	-10	12
16	Eibar	14	1	7	6	-11	10
17	Vallecano	14	3	1	10	-12	10
18	Celta	14	2	3	9	-11	9
19	Espanol	15	1	6	8	-11	9
20	Huesca	15	2	3	10	-15	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.