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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Fiorentina

U T T S S

0–1

Full-time

Cagliari

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 35%

44%

25%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

14 Shots 14

0 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Cagliari 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	29	4	3	+61	91
2	Napoli	36	26	7	3	+45	85
3	Roma	36	22	7	7	+32	73
4	Lazio	36	21	8	7	+41	71
5	Inter	37	19	12	6	+35	69
6	Milan	36	17	9	10	+10	60
7	Atalanta	36	16	11	9	+19	59
8	Fiorentina	36	16	9	11	+13	57
9	Sampdoria	36	16	6	14	+0	54
10	Torino	36	11	15	10	+6	48
11	Sassuolo	37	11	10	16	-29	43
12	Genoa	37	11	8	18	-9	41
13	Bologna	36	11	6	19	-10	39
14	Spal	36	7	14	15	-21	35
15	Udinese	36	10	4	22	-17	34
16	Crotone	36	9	7	20	-25	34
17	Chievo	36	8	10	18	-25	34
18	Cagliari	36	9	6	21	-30	33
19	Verona	36	7	4	25	-46	25
20	Benevento	37	6	3	28	-50	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	15	1	2	+36	46
2	Napoli	18	13	3	2	+24	42
3	Sampdoria	18	12	3	3	+18	39
4	Inter	19	11	5	3	+21	38
5	Roma	18	11	1	6	+12	34
6	Lazio	18	9	5	4	+25	32
7	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+12	32
8	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	32
9	Fiorentina	18	8	5	5	+6	29
10	Torino	18	7	6	5	+10	27
11	Chievo	18	6	6	6	-3	24
12	Crotone	18	6	5	7	-2	23
13	Bologna	18	6	4	8	+0	22
14	Genoa	18	6	3	9	-3	21
15	Spal	18	4	8	6	-9	20
16	Sassuolo	18	4	7	7	-10	19
17	Cagliari	18	5	3	10	-13	18
18	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-7	17
19	Benevento	19	5	2	12	-17	17
20	Verona	18	5	1	12	-20	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	14	3	1	+25	45
2	Napoli	18	13	4	1	+21	43
3	Roma	18	11	6	1	+20	39
4	Lazio	18	12	3	3	+16	39
5	Inter	18	8	7	3	+14	31
6	Fiorentina	18	8	4	6	+7	28
7	Milan	18	8	4	6	+5	28
8	Atalanta	18	7	6	5	+7	27
9	Sassuolo	19	7	3	9	-19	24
10	Torino	18	4	9	5	-4	21
11	Genoa	19	5	5	9	-6	20
12	Udinese	18	5	2	11	-10	17
13	Bologna	18	5	2	11	-10	17
14	Spal	18	3	6	9	-12	15
15	Cagliari	18	4	3	11	-17	15
16	Sampdoria	18	4	3	11	-18	15
17	Crotone	18	3	2	13	-23	11
18	Chievo	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Verona	18	2	3	13	-26	9
20	Benevento	18	1	1	16	-33	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.