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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Newcastle

S T T T T

3–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 44%

30%

57%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

41%

54%

Both score Ø 45%

43%

46%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 10. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	37	31	4	2	+78	97
2	Man United	37	24	6	7	+39	78
3	Tottenham	37	22	8	7	+37	74
4	Liverpool	37	20	12	5	+42	72
5	Chelsea	37	21	7	9	+27	70
6	Arsenal	37	18	6	13	+22	60
7	Burnley	37	14	12	11	-2	54
8	Everton	37	13	10	14	-12	49
9	Leicester	37	12	11	14	-3	47
10	Newcastle	37	11	8	18	-11	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	10	11	16	-12	41
12	Bournemouth	37	10	11	16	-17	41
13	Watford	37	11	8	18	-19	41
14	Brighton	37	9	13	15	-16	40
15	West Ham	37	9	12	16	-22	39
16	Huddersfield	37	9	10	18	-29	37
17	Southampton	37	7	15	15	-18	36
18	Swansea	37	8	9	20	-27	33
19	West Brom	37	6	13	18	-23	31
20	Stoke	37	6	12	19	-34	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	16	2	1	+47	50
2	Arsenal	19	15	2	2	+34	47
3	Man United	18	14	2	2	+28	44
4	Liverpool	18	11	7	0	+31	40
5	Tottenham	18	12	4	2	+23	40
6	Chelsea	19	11	4	4	+14	37
7	Everton	19	10	4	5	+6	34
8	Brighton	19	7	8	4	-1	29
9	Leicester	19	7	6	6	+3	27
10	Watford	19	7	6	6	-4	27
11	Burnley	18	7	5	6	+0	26
12	Bournemouth	19	7	5	7	-4	26
13	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	+1	25
14	West Ham	18	6	6	6	-4	24
15	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	+0	23
16	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-8	23
17	Swansea	18	6	3	9	-6	21
18	Stoke	19	5	5	9	-10	20
19	Southampton	18	4	7	7	-5	19
20	West Brom	19	3	9	7	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+31	47
2	Tottenham	19	10	4	5	+14	34
3	Man United	19	10	4	5	+11	34
4	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+13	33
5	Liverpool	19	9	5	5	+11	32
6	Burnley	19	7	7	5	-2	28
7	Leicester	18	5	5	8	-6	20
8	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-12	18
9	Southampton	19	3	8	8	-13	17
10	Newcastle	19	4	4	11	-12	16
11	Bournemouth	18	3	6	9	-13	15
12	West Ham	19	3	6	10	-18	15
13	Everton	18	3	6	9	-18	15
14	Watford	18	4	2	12	-15	14
15	Huddersfield	19	3	5	11	-21	14
16	Arsenal	18	3	4	11	-12	13
17	West Brom	18	3	4	11	-15	13
18	Swansea	19	2	6	11	-21	12
19	Brighton	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Stoke	18	1	7	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.