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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Vitoria Setubal

T U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 24%

18%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 30

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 17. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	34	28	4	2	+64	88
2	Benfica	33	24	6	3	+57	78
3	Sp Lisbon	33	24	6	3	+40	78
4	Sp Braga	33	24	3	6	+46	75
5	Rio Ave	33	14	6	13	-3	48
6	Chaves	34	13	8	13	-8	47
7	Boavista	34	13	6	15	-9	45
8	Maritimo	33	12	8	13	-14	44
9	Guimaraes	34	13	4	17	-11	43
10	Tondela	33	10	8	15	-8	38
11	Belenenses	34	9	10	15	-13	37
12	Portimonense	33	9	8	16	-10	35
13	Aves	34	9	7	18	-15	34
14	Moreirense	33	8	8	17	-20	32
15	Feirense	33	9	3	21	-16	30
16	Pacos Ferreira	33	7	9	17	-24	30
17	Vitoria Setubal	33	6	11	16	-24	29
18	Estoril	33	8	5	20	-32	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	16	1	0	+42	49
2	Sp Lisbon	17	14	3	0	+28	45
3	Sp Braga	17	14	1	2	+27	43
4	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+37	40
5	Boavista	17	11	2	4	+7	35
6	Rio Ave	16	10	3	3	+13	33
7	Maritimo	16	9	4	3	+8	31
8	Guimaraes	17	9	3	5	-2	30
9	Belenenses	17	7	5	5	+3	26
10	Chaves	17	6	6	5	+1	24
11	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	6	5	-3	24
12	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	+1	23
13	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	6	5	-1	21
14	Moreirense	17	5	6	6	-5	21
15	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
16	Tondela	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Aves	17	5	3	9	-7	18
18	Estoril	17	5	3	9	-12	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	12	3	2	+22	39
2	Benfica	17	11	5	1	+20	38
3	Sp Lisbon	16	10	3	3	+12	33
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+19	32
5	Chaves	17	7	2	8	-9	23
6	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-3	20
7	Aves	17	4	4	9	-8	16
8	Rio Ave	17	4	3	10	-16	15
9	Guimaraes	17	4	1	12	-9	13
10	Maritimo	17	3	4	10	-22	13
11	Portimonense	17	2	6	9	-11	12
12	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-15	11
13	Belenenses	17	2	5	10	-16	11
14	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-20	11
15	Feirense	17	3	1	13	-12	10
16	Boavista	17	2	4	11	-16	10
17	Vitoria Setubal	17	1	5	11	-23	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	1	3	12	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.