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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Vitoria Setubal

U U T U U

0–0

Full-time

Tondela

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,8

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 23%

21%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

33%

54%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

1,9

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

11 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

8 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 15. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	24	19	2	3	+45	59
2	Porto	24	18	3	3	+34	57
3	Sp Braga	25	17	4	4	+19	55
4	Sp Lisbon	25	16	4	5	+22	52
5	Moreirense	25	13	3	9	+1	42
6	Guimaraes	25	11	6	8	+6	39
7	Belenenses	24	9	9	6	+6	36
8	Santa Clara	25	9	5	11	+0	32
9	Portimonense	25	9	4	12	-5	31
10	Rio Ave	25	7	8	10	-3	29
11	Maritimo	25	8	3	14	-12	27
12	Aves	25	7	5	13	-12	26
13	Boavista	25	7	5	13	-12	26
14	Nacional	25	7	5	13	-26	26
15	Vitoria Setubal	24	5	9	10	-6	24
16	Tondela	24	6	5	13	-11	23
17	Chaves	25	5	6	14	-18	21
18	Feirense	24	2	8	14	-28	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
2	Sp Braga	13	11	1	1	+16	34
3	Porto	12	10	0	2	+21	30
4	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+30	28
5	Guimaraes	12	7	3	2	+7	24
6	Moreirense	12	7	3	2	+6	24
7	Portimonense	13	6	4	3	+8	22
8	Boavista	13	6	1	6	+0	19
9	Belenenses	12	5	3	4	+5	18
10	Rio Ave	13	4	5	4	+0	17
11	Nacional	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Aves	13	4	3	6	-2	15
13	Santa Clara	13	4	2	7	-3	14
14	Chaves	13	3	5	5	-3	14
15	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-5	14
16	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	4	4	+0	13
18	Feirense	11	1	5	5	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+15	31
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+3	21
4	Sp Lisbon	12	5	3	4	+3	18
5	Santa Clara	12	5	3	4	+3	18
6	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
7	Moreirense	13	6	0	7	-5	18
8	Guimaraes	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	Maritimo	13	4	1	8	-7	13
10	Rio Ave	12	3	3	6	-3	12
11	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	5	6	-6	11
12	Aves	12	3	2	7	-10	11
13	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-6	9
14	Portimonense	12	3	0	9	-13	9
15	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-22	9
16	Boavista	12	1	4	7	-12	7
17	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-15	7
18	Feirense	13	1	3	9	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.