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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Nice

T U S S U

0–1

Full-time

Caen

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

0,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 27%

41%

13%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

19%

41%

Both score Ø 36%

25%

47%

Average goals

1,6

2,2

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 8. · Caen 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	26	3	3	+66	81
2	Lille	32	19	7	6	+26	64
3	Lyon	33	17	8	8	+14	59
4	Marseille	33	16	6	11	+8	54
5	St Etienne	32	15	8	9	+11	53
6	Montpellier	32	12	12	8	+8	48
7	Reims	32	11	15	6	+0	48
8	Nice	32	13	9	10	-6	48
9	Strasbourg	32	10	14	8	+14	44
10	Nimes	32	12	7	13	+0	43
11	Rennes	33	11	10	12	-1	43
12	Angers	33	9	14	10	+0	41
13	Bordeaux	32	9	11	12	-4	38
14	Nantes	32	10	7	15	-4	37
15	Toulouse	32	8	11	13	-16	35
16	Monaco	32	7	11	14	-15	32
17	Amiens	32	8	8	16	-19	32
18	Dijon	33	7	7	19	-23	28
19	Guingamp	33	5	9	19	-36	24
20	Caen	32	4	11	17	-23	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	15	1	0	+47	46
2	Lyon	17	11	3	3	+15	36
3	St Etienne	16	11	2	3	+16	35
4	Lille	16	10	4	2	+20	34
5	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+17	34
6	Reims	16	7	7	2	+6	28
7	Montpellier	16	7	6	3	+10	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Nice	15	8	3	4	+1	27
10	Nimes	16	7	5	4	+9	26
11	Rennes	16	7	5	4	+7	26
12	Strasbourg	16	6	7	3	+10	25
13	Nantes	16	7	4	5	+8	25
14	Angers	16	5	7	4	+3	22
15	Amiens	16	6	3	7	-3	21
16	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	-3	19
17	Dijon	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Monaco	17	3	6	8	-11	15
19	Guingamp	17	3	5	9	-11	14
20	Caen	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+19	35
2	Lille	16	9	3	4	+6	30
3	Lyon	16	6	5	5	-1	23
4	Montpellier	16	5	6	5	-2	21
5	Nice	17	5	6	6	-7	21
6	Reims	16	4	8	4	-6	20
7	Marseille	17	6	2	9	-9	20
8	Strasbourg	16	4	7	5	+4	19
9	Angers	17	4	7	6	-3	19
10	St Etienne	16	4	6	6	-5	18
11	Monaco	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-8	17
13	Nimes	16	5	2	9	-9	17
14	Toulouse	16	4	4	8	-13	16
15	Dijon	16	3	3	10	-10	12
16	Caen	16	2	6	8	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	12
18	Bordeaux	16	2	5	9	-10	11
19	Amiens	16	2	5	9	-16	11
20	Guingamp	16	2	4	10	-25	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.