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Ligue 1
Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry
Nice
T U
2–1
Full-time
Caen
S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Caen
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,5
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,5
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,5
0,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%
7 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nice 13. · Caen 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Reims 2 2 0 0 +2 6
3 Caen 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Rennes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
5 Angers 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Bastia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Nantes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Lyon 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Toulouse 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Troyes 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Lorient 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Nice 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Bordeaux 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 St Etienne 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Lille 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Marseille 2 0 0 2 -2 0
19 Guingamp 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Montpellier 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nice Caen
45′
🟨 Lenny Nangis
Half-time 0–0
J. Correia Da Fonseca 🔁
↦ K. Gomis
46′
1–0 H. Ben Arfa ⚽
V. Koziello
66′
67′
⚽ A. Delort 1–1
L. Nangis
69′
🔁 H. Bazile
↦ L. Nangis
Vincent Koziello 🟨
71′
72′
🟨 Nicolas Seube
Wallyson Mallmann 🔁
↦ V. Koziello
72′
75′
🔁 J. Adéoti
↦ N. Seube
2–1 A. Pléa ⚽
N. Mendy
77′
80′
🔁 J. Louis
↦ V. Bessat
82′
🟨 Jeff Louis
A. Mendy 🔁
↦ A. Pléa
83′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Nice

1 M. Hassen G
4 P. Baysse D
5 K. Gomis M
33 O. Boscagli D
9 H. Ben Arfa F
22 N. Mendy M
6 J. Seri M
26 V. Koziello M
29 J. Pied D
28 V. Germain F
14 A. Pléa F
Bench (7)
35 J. Correia Da Fonseca
19 Wallyson Mallmann
15 A. Mendy
20 M. Le Marchand
11 S. Benrahma
34 P. Puel
30 Y. Cardinale

Caen

1 R. Vercoutre G
28 D. Da Silva D
13 S. Ben Youssef D
12 D. Appiah D
21 C. Alhadhur M
2 N. Seube M
11 V. Bessat D
25 J. Féret M
6 J. Delaplace M
9 A. Delort F
10 L. Nangis M
Bench (7)
20 H. Bazile
18 J. Adéoti
14 J. Louis
30 P. Reulet
19 J. Leborgne
33 V. Voisin
29 F. Le Joncour

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jerome Miguelgorry · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
17,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.