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Ligue 1
Referee: Stephane Lannoy
Toulouse
S T
1–1
Full-time
Monaco
S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Monaco
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
1,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
1,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%
12 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Monaco 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 3 3 0 0 +4 9
2 Reims 2 2 0 0 +2 6
3 Caen 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Rennes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
5 Angers 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Bastia 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Monaco 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Nantes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Lyon 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Toulouse 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Troyes 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Lorient 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Nice 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Bordeaux 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 St Etienne 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Lille 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Marseille 2 0 0 2 -2 0
19 Guingamp 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Montpellier 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Monaco
1–0 T. Doumbia ⚽
22′
Half-time 1–0
50′
🟨 Wallace dos Santos
57′
🟨 Almamy Touré
60′
🔁 T. Lemar
↦ F. Bahlouli
65′
⚽ T. Lemar 1–1
J. Toulalan
71′
🔁 Bernardo Silva
↦ S. El Shaarawy
Somália 🔁
↦ W. Ben Yedder
75′
Y. Bodiger 🔁
↦ E. Didot
75′
79′
🟨 Adama Traoré
A. Regattin 🔁
↦ O. Trejo
79′
81′
🔁 L. Traoré
↦ N. Dirar
88′
🟨 Bernardo Silva
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Toulouse

1 M. Goicoechea G
6 William Matheus D
24 P. Ninkov D
3 J. Kana-Biyik D
7 J. Akpa Akpro M
20 S. Yago D
8 E. Didot M
18 O. Trejo M
4 T. Doumbia M
9 M. Braithwaite F
10 W. Ben Yedder F
Bench (7)
19 Somália
23 Y. Bodiger
17 A. Regattin
30 A. Ahamada
28 M. Roman
29 F. Moubandje
27 A. Blin

Monaco

1 D. Subašić G
3 L. Kurzawa D
38 A. Touré D
13 Wallace D
28 J. Toulalan D
7 N. Dirar M
14 T. Bakayoko M
12 F. Bahlouli M
23 A. Traoré M
22 S. El Shaarawy F
11 G. Carrillo F
Bench (7)
27 T. Lemar
10 Bernardo Silva
19 L. Traoré
21 U. Echiejile
9 A. Martial
30 S. Sy
24 A. Raggi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Stephane Lannoy · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
10,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.