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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Toulouse

S S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Lyon

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

40%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 4. · Lyon 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	10	8	2	0	+13	26
2	Paris SG	11	7	2	2	+13	23
3	Monaco	10	7	1	2	+15	22
4	Toulouse	10	5	3	2	+7	18
5	Guingamp	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Rennes	10	5	2	3	+0	17
7	St Etienne	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Bordeaux	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Angers	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Lyon	10	4	1	5	+2	13
11	Marseille	10	3	4	3	+1	13
12	Metz	10	4	1	5	-9	13
13	Dijon	10	3	3	4	-1	12
14	Nantes	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	Bastia	10	3	1	6	-2	10
16	Lille	11	3	1	7	-7	10
17	Montpellier	10	2	4	4	-9	10
18	Caen	10	3	1	6	-10	10
19	Nancy	10	1	3	6	-8	6
20	Lorient	10	2	0	8	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Rennes	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Toulouse	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+8	11
6	Dijon	6	3	2	1	+5	11
7	St Etienne	5	3	2	0	+5	11
8	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+4	11
9	Guingamp	4	3	1	0	+3	10
10	Lyon	5	3	0	2	+4	9
11	Lille	6	3	0	3	-2	9
12	Caen	5	3	0	2	-4	9
13	Angers	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+1	8
15	Bordeaux	5	2	2	1	+1	8
16	Bastia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Lorient	5	2	0	3	-4	6
18	Metz	5	2	0	3	-9	6
19	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Nancy	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Nice	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Monaco	5	3	0	2	+5	9
4	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	+1	7
5	Bordeaux	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Nantes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Metz	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-1	6
9	Angers	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	St Etienne	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Nancy	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	Rennes	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Bastia	5	1	0	4	-2	3
15	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Montpellier	5	0	2	3	-10	2
17	Lille	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Caen	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Dijon	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Lorient	5	0	0	5	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.