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Eredivisie
Referee: Paulus van Boekel
NAC Breda
T
1–4
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
5,0
3,3
Scored
1,0
2,5
Conceded
4,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-3,0
+1,7
This season — Eredivisie · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
5,0
Scored
1,0
3,0
Conceded
4,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-3,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%
10 Shots 26
4 Shots on target 9
2 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 8
1 Offside 2
20 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match NAC Breda 15. · PSV Eindhoven 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Vitesse 2 2 0 0 +5 6
2 Utrecht 2 2 0 0 +5 6
3 VVV Venlo 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Feyenoord 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Heracles 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Zwolle 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Ajax 2 1 0 1 +1 3
8 AZ Alkmaar 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 PSV Eindhoven 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Excelsior 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Heerenveen 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Groningen 2 0 1 1 -2 1
13 Twente 2 0 0 2 -2 0
14 Willem II 2 0 0 2 -3 0
15 NAC Breda 1 0 0 1 -3 0
16 Sparta Rotterdam 1 0 0 1 -3 0
17 Roda 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 Den Haag 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

NAC Breda PSV Eindhoven
17′
⚽ S. Bergwijn 0–1
1–1 T. Ambrose ⚽
41′
James Horsfield 🟨
42′
Half-time 1–1
Mounir El Allouchi 🟨
50′
50′
🟨 Steven Bergwijn
58′
🔁 L. de Jong
↦ G. Pereiro
60′
⚽ M. van Ginkel 1–2
H. Lozano
T. Agyepong 🔁
↦ Paolo Fernandes
68′
69′
⚽ H. Lozano 1–3
S. Bergwijn
G. Korte 🔁
↦ M. El Allouchi
73′
73′
🔁 B. Ramselaar
↦ S. Bergwijn
K. Mets 🔁
↦ J. Horsfield
79′
87′
⚽ J. Hendrix 1–4
L. de Jong
Pablo Mari 🟨
89′
90′
🔁 Albert Gudmundsson
↦ H. Lozano
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

NAC Breda

4-3-3
1 A. Noppert G
3 M. Koch D
22 Pablo Marí D
69 Angeliño D
35 J. Horsfield D
10 R. Vloet M
6 A. Verschueren M
8 M. El Allouchi M
19 Manu García M
9 T. Ambrose F
11 Paolo Fernandes M
Bench (8)
20 T. Agyepong
7 G. Korte
5 K. Mets
14 O. Rommens
12 S. van der Maaten
45 R. Sprangers
24 D. Klomp
23 N. Bertrams

Coach: S. Vreven

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
1 J. Zoet G
4 S. Arias D
2 N. Isimat-Mirin D
3 D. Luckassen D
10 M. van Ginkel M
8 J. Hendrix M
32 K. Paal D
19 J. Locadia F
7 G. Pereiro M
17 S. Bergwijn F
11 H. Lozano F
Bench (11)
9 L. de Jong
23 B. Ramselaar
29 Albert Gudmundsson
25 A. Maher
20 J. Brenet
30 J. de Wijs
16 D. Rigo
31 Y. van Osch
5 D. Schwaab
13 E. Room
14 S. Lammers

Coach: P. Cocu

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Paulus van Boekel · 30 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.