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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Capela
Arouca
S S U
1–3
Full-time
Porto
S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
0%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
0,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
0%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
0,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%
5 Shots 17
1 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Arouca 4. · Porto 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 4 3 0 1 +10 9
2 Porto 3 2 1 0 +5 7
3 Sp Lisbon 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Arouca 3 2 1 0 +3 7
5 Sp Braga 4 2 0 2 +3 6
6 Estoril 4 2 0 2 -3 6
7 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
8 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
10 U. Madeira 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
12 Tondela 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Nacional 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Belenenses 4 0 3 1 -6 3
15 Maritimo 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Guimaraes 3 0 2 1 -3 2
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arouca Porto
David Simao 🟨
6′
15′
⚽ Jesús Corona 0–1
21′
🟨 Miguel Layún
23′
🟨 Yacine Brahimi
35′
🟨 Iván Marcano
Half-time 0–1
Leandro 🔁
↦ Zequinha
55′
55′
🔁 Danilo Pereira
↦ Y. Brahimi
Maurides 🔁
↦ Jaílson
61′
61′
⚽ Jesús Corona 0–2
65′
🟨 Giannelli Imbula
68′
🟨 Rúben Neves
70′
🔁 H. Herrera
↦ G. Imbula
71′
⚽ V. Aboubakar 0–3
Nildo Petrolina 🔁
↦ David Simão
73′
80′
🟨 Maxi Pereira
1–3 Maurides ⚽
83′
87′
🔁 Bueno
↦ Jesús Corona
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Arouca

1 Rafael Bracalli G
4 J. Velázquez
66 Nuno Coelho M
6 Lucas Lima D
3 Hugo Basto D
13 Jaílson D
7 Artur Moreira M
8 David Simão M
50 Nuno Valente M
87 Zequinha M
17 Roberto F
Bench (7)
77 Leandro
99 Maurides
30 Nildo Petrolina
85 Rui Sacramento
22 Adilson Goiano
16 Tomás Dabó
14 Gêgê

Porto

12 Casillas G
2 M. Pereira D
5 Marcano D
21 M. Layún D
4 Maicon D
8 Y. Brahimi M
20 André André M
25 G. Imbula M
17 Jesús Corona M
6 Rúben Neves M
9 V. Aboubakar F
Bench (7)
22 Danilo Pereira
16 H. Herrera
23 Bueno
1 Helton
3 B. Martins Indi
11 Tello
10 D. Osvaldo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Joao Capela · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,48 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.