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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro
U. Madeira
S T S T S
3–0
Full-time
Nacional
T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

U. Madeira Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
17%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
1,3
3,8
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
0,7
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 25%
28%
22%
Points per game
1,1
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
33%
44%
Both score Ø 39%
22%
56%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
0,6
1,1
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%
9 Shots 15
7 Shots on target 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 9
3 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match U. Madeira 14. · Nacional 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 18 14 3 1 +26 45
2 Benfica 18 14 1 3 +35 43
3 Porto 18 12 4 2 +25 40
4 Sp Braga 18 9 5 4 +15 32
5 Pacos Ferreira 18 8 5 5 +7 29
6 Guimaraes 18 7 5 6 -3 26
7 Rio Ave 18 7 4 7 +1 25
8 Vitoria Setubal 19 6 7 6 -5 25
9 Arouca 18 5 9 4 +2 24
10 Maritimo 18 6 3 9 -10 21
11 Belenenses 18 5 6 7 -15 21
12 Estoril 18 5 5 8 -6 20
13 Moreirense 18 5 5 8 -7 20
14 U. Madeira 18 5 5 8 -11 20
15 Nacional 18 4 5 9 -7 17
16 Academica 19 4 5 10 -16 17
17 Boavista 18 3 4 11 -14 13
18 Tondela 18 2 3 13 -17 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Aug -15 Nacional – U. Madeira 1–0

Match report

U. Madeira Nacional
1–0 A. Shehu
30′
2–0 Toni Silva
34′
37′
🔁 Nenê Bonilha
↦ B. Fofana
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 Joan Román
↦ Witi
3–0 Toni Silva
48′
54′
🔁 Rodrigo Pinho
↦ Salvador Agra
Rúben Andrade 🔁
↦ Breitner
77′
Carlos Manuel 🔁
↦ Paulinho
88′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

U. Madeira

95 André Moreira G
37 Paulo Monteiro
5 Joãozinho D
2 Paulinho D
44 Diego Galo D
14 A. Shehu M
3 William Soares
10 Breitner
20 Toni Silva F
15 Danilo Dias F
18 J. Cádiz F
Bench (7)
7 Rúben Andrade
8 Carlos Manuel
27 E. Farías
22 Filipe Chaby
6 Tiago Ferreira
12 Rafael Alves
28 Marco Tulio

Nacional

1 Gottardi G
3 Zainadine Junior D
5 Sequeira D
17 B. Fofana M
33 Rui Correia D
2 João Aurélio D
89 Washington Santana M
28 Willyan M
7 Salvador Agra M
27 Ricardo Gomes F
81 Witi M
Bench (7)
8 Nenê Bonilha
19 Joan Román
91 Rodrigo Pinho
6 Ali Ghazal
22 Nuno Campos
20 Jota
12 Rui Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.