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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Capela
Guimaraes
U U U U T
0–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Pacos Ferreira
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 32%
32%
32%
Points per game
1,4
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
48%
48%
Both score Ø 54%
56%
52%
Average goals
2,9
2,7
Scored
1,4
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%
18 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 4
2 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Pacos Ferreira 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 26 19 5 2 +35 62
2 Benfica 25 20 1 4 +49 61
3 Porto 26 18 4 4 +29 58
4 Sp Braga 25 13 8 4 +25 47
5 Arouca 26 10 11 5 +8 41
6 Rio Ave 26 10 6 10 -2 36
7 Guimaraes 25 8 10 7 -3 34
8 Estoril 26 9 6 11 -3 33
9 Pacos Ferreira 25 8 8 9 -1 32
10 Nacional 26 8 7 11 -7 31
11 Maritimo 26 8 5 13 -15 29
12 Belenenses 25 7 8 10 -21 29
13 Vitoria Setubal 26 6 10 10 -11 28
14 Moreirense 26 7 6 13 -13 27
15 U. Madeira 26 6 7 13 -17 25
16 Boavista 26 6 6 14 -13 24
17 Academica 26 5 8 13 -18 23
18 Tondela 25 3 4 18 -22 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guimaraes Pacos Ferreira
3′
Fábio Cardoso 0–1
17′
🟨 Fabio Martins
Oriol Rosell 🟨
21′
23′
🔁 Paraiba
↦ Fábio Martins
43′
🟨 Ricardo
João Teixeira 🟥
45′
Half-time 0–1
Victor Andrade 🔁
↦ P. Hurtado
58′
63′
🔁 Manuel José
↦ Andrézinho
Raphael 🔁
↦ Licá
73′
Otávio 🟨
75′
75′
🟨 Hélder Lopes
76′
🟨 Diogo Jota
Valente 🔁
↦ João Afonso
85′
86′
🔁 Ponck
↦ Pelé
90′
🟨 Manuel Jose
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

56 João Miguel G
3 Josué Sá D
76 Bruno Gaspar D
15 João Afonso D
93 Dalbert Henrique D
16 P. Hurtado M
24 João Teixeira M
25 Oriol Rosell M
52 Otavinho M
11 Licá F
89 Henrique Dourado F
Bench (7)
28 Victor Andrade
81 Raphael
7 Valente
1 Douglas Jesus
29 A. Arrondel
45 Alexandre Silva
99 B. Saré

Pacos Ferreira

1 Rafael Defendi G
19 Ricardo D
6 Fábio Cardoso D
25 Pelé M
2 Marco Baixinho D
5 Hélder Lopes D
94 Bruno Santos D
18 Diogo Jota F
20 Andrézinho M
11 Bruno Moreira F
47 Fábio Martins M
Bench (7)
12 Paraiba
81 Manuel José
14 Ponck
9 Cicero
10 Minhoca
16 B. Osei
50 Marco Sousa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Joao Capela · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,48 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.