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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Rio Ave

T U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Moreirense

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

1,8

Scored

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 30%

38%

21%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

51% Possession 49%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 9. · Moreirense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	19	5	1	+46	62
2	Benfica	24	19	3	2	+39	60
3	Sp Lisbon	25	15	6	4	+21	51
4	Sp Braga	25	12	7	6	+15	43
5	Guimaraes	24	11	7	6	+6	40
6	Maritimo	25	10	7	8	+0	37
7	Boavista	25	8	9	8	+2	33
8	Chaves	25	7	12	6	+1	33
9	Rio Ave	24	9	5	10	-2	32
10	Belenenses	24	8	8	8	-3	32
11	Vitoria Setubal	25	8	6	11	-2	30
12	Feirense	25	8	5	12	-17	29
13	Arouca	25	8	3	14	-16	27
14	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	7	11	-11	25
15	Estoril	24	5	5	14	-14	20
16	Moreirense	24	5	5	14	-15	20
17	Nacional	24	3	7	14	-24	16
18	Tondela	25	3	7	15	-26	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+29	37
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+27	32
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	29
4	Sp Lisbon	12	9	2	1	+16	29
5	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+7	24
6	Chaves	13	5	7	1	+6	22
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	5	2	+3	20
9	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+0	18
10	Belenenses	12	4	5	3	+0	17
11	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Arouca	13	5	1	7	-5	16
13	Boavista	12	4	3	5	+3	15
14	Feirense	13	4	2	7	-10	14
15	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Nacional	12	2	5	5	-7	11
18	Estoril	12	3	1	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Porto	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	4	3	+5	22
5	Boavista	13	4	6	3	-1	18
6	Belenenses	12	4	3	5	-3	15
7	Feirense	12	4	3	5	-7	15
8	Sp Braga	12	3	5	4	-1	14
9	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-2	14
10	Maritimo	13	3	4	6	-7	13
11	Chaves	12	2	5	5	-5	11
12	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-11	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Moreirense	12	3	0	9	-11	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-14	5
17	Nacional	12	1	2	9	-17	5
18	Tondela	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.