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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Bastien

Lyon

S T S S U

4–0

Full-time

Toulouse

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 44%

56%

32%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

63%

43%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

46%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

7 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 4. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	29	21	5	3	+58	68
2	Nice	29	18	9	2	+24	63
3	Paris SG	28	19	5	4	+37	62
4	Lyon	27	15	2	10	+23	47
5	Marseille	29	13	6	10	+6	45
6	Bordeaux	29	11	10	8	+1	43
7	St Etienne	29	10	11	8	+9	41
8	Guingamp	29	10	8	11	+1	38
9	Rennes	29	9	11	9	-5	38
10	Nantes	29	10	7	12	-16	37
11	Toulouse	28	9	9	10	+3	36
12	Angers	29	10	6	13	-10	36
13	Montpellier	29	8	9	12	-7	33
14	Lille	29	9	6	14	-8	33
15	Caen	29	9	5	15	-17	32
16	Metz	28	8	8	12	-25	32
17	Dijon	29	6	10	13	-8	28
18	Nancy	29	7	7	15	-18	28
19	Bastia	29	5	10	14	-19	25
20	Lorient	28	6	4	18	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	15	11	4	0	+20	37
3	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Paris SG	14	9	5	0	+23	32
5	Lyon	14	10	0	4	+19	30
6	Rennes	15	8	5	2	+9	29
7	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
8	Guingamp	14	8	3	3	+10	27
9	Toulouse	14	8	2	4	+11	26
10	Montpellier	15	7	5	3	+10	26
11	Angers	14	6	5	3	+5	23
12	Bordeaux	15	6	5	4	-1	23
13	Caen	14	7	2	5	-4	23
14	Dijon	14	5	5	4	+5	20
15	Metz	13	5	5	3	-5	20
16	Bastia	15	3	9	3	+1	18
17	Nantes	14	5	3	6	-9	18
18	Lille	14	5	2	7	-3	17
19	Nancy	14	5	2	7	-3	17
20	Lorient	14	5	2	7	-8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	0	4	+14	30
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+17	28
3	Nice	14	7	5	2	+4	26
4	Bordeaux	14	5	5	4	+2	20
5	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
6	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+4	17
7	Lille	15	4	4	7	-5	16
8	St Etienne	14	3	5	6	-2	14
9	Angers	15	4	1	10	-15	13
10	Marseille	14	3	3	8	-8	12
11	Metz	15	3	3	9	-20	12
12	Guingamp	15	2	5	8	-9	11
13	Nancy	15	2	5	8	-15	11
14	Toulouse	14	1	7	6	-8	10
15	Caen	15	2	3	10	-13	9
16	Rennes	14	1	6	7	-14	9
17	Dijon	15	1	5	9	-13	8
18	Montpellier	14	1	4	9	-17	7
19	Bastia	14	2	1	11	-20	7
20	Lorient	14	1	2	11	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.