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La Liga
Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo
Celta
T S T U U
4–0
Full-time
Sevilla
S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 42%
37%
47%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 53%
63%
43%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,2
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%
12 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Celta 9. · Sevilla 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 30 23 7 0 +61 76
2 Ath Madrid 30 20 7 3 +36 67
3 Real Madrid 30 19 6 5 +43 63
4 Valencia 30 19 5 6 +27 62
5 Villarreal 30 14 5 11 +6 47
6 Betis 30 14 4 12 -3 46
7 Sevilla 30 14 4 12 -7 46
8 Girona 30 12 8 10 +1 44
9 Celta 30 11 7 12 +3 40
10 Eibar 30 11 7 12 -7 40
11 Getafe 31 10 9 12 +5 39
12 Ath Bilbao 30 8 12 10 -4 36
13 Espanol 30 8 12 10 -11 36
14 Leganes 30 10 6 14 -11 36
15 Alaves 31 11 2 18 -17 35
16 Sociedad 30 9 7 14 -1 34
17 Levante 30 5 13 12 -18 28
18 La Coruna 31 5 8 18 -34 23
19 Las Palmas 30 5 6 19 -40 21
20 Malaga 31 4 5 22 -29 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Celta Sevilla
Jonny Castro 🟨
12′
21′
🟨 Guido Pizarro
0–1 Guilherme Arana
own goal
38′
40′
🔁 C. Lenglet
↦ S. Kjær
Half-time 1–1
1–1 Iago Aspas
P. Hernández
57′
58′
🔁 F. Vázquez
↦ G. Pizarro
2–1 Iago Aspas
P. Hernández
60′
71′
🔁 Nolito
↦ Pablo Sarabia
N. Radoja 🔁
↦ D. Wass
74′
G. Cabral 🔁
↦ Jonny Castro
77′
3–1 Iago Aspas
78′
82′
🟨 Éver Banega
L. Boyé 🔁
↦ P. Hernández
83′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Celta

4-3-3
1 Sergio Álvarez G
24 F. Roncaglia D
2 Hugo Mallo D
20 Sergi Gómez D
19 Jonny Castro D
18 D. Wass M
8 P. Hernández M
14 S. Lobotka M
26 Brais Méndez M
10 Iago Aspas F
11 P. Sisto M
Bench (7)
6 N. Radoja
22 G. Cabral
9 L. Boyé
3 Fontàs
13 Rubén Blanco
16 Jozabed
32 D. Eckert

Coach: Unzué

Sevilla

4-2-3-1
13 David Soria G
4 S. Kjær D
6 Daniel Carriço D
3 M. Layún D
8 Guilherme Arana M
10 É. Banega M
15 S. N'Zonzi M
17 Pablo Sarabia M
14 G. Pizarro M
9 W. Ben Yedder F
23 Sandro Ramírez F
Bench (7)
5 C. Lenglet
22 F. Vázquez
24 Nolito
30 Carlos Fernández
1 Sergio Rico
16 Jesús Navas
12 J. Geis

Coach: V. Montella

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.