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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

T S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Aves

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 50%

73%

27%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

59% Possession 41%

10 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Aves 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	0	2	+19	30
2	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Benfica	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Sp Lisbon	11	8	1	2	+10	25
5	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
8	Vitoria Setubal	12	5	2	5	+2	17
9	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+1	17
10	Moreirense	12	5	1	6	-6	16
11	Portimonense	12	4	2	6	-8	14
12	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-8	13
13	Aves	11	3	1	7	-5	10
14	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-7	10
15	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-8	10
16	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-4	9
17	Feirense	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Portimonense	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Moreirense	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	0	3	+2	9
10	Belenenses	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Aves	6	2	1	3	+1	7
12	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-3	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Belenenses	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-4	6
11	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-7	6
12	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
15	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Feirense	6	1	0	5	-8	3
17	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
18	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.