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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Man United

T U S U U

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

54%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

46%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%

15 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	25	18	5	2	+35	59
2	Leicester	25	15	4	6	+17	49
3	Man United	24	13	7	4	+19	46
4	West Ham	25	13	6	6	+10	45
5	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+16	43
6	Liverpool	25	11	7	7	+11	40
7	Everton	24	12	4	8	+4	40
8	Aston Villa	23	11	3	9	+11	36
9	Tottenham	24	10	6	8	+10	36
10	Arsenal	25	10	4	11	+5	34
11	Wolves	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Leeds	24	10	2	12	-3	32
13	Southampton	24	8	6	10	-9	30
14	Crystal Palace	24	8	5	11	-15	29
15	Burnley	25	7	7	11	-12	28
16	Brighton	24	5	11	8	-5	26
17	Newcastle	24	7	4	13	-15	25
18	Fulham	25	4	10	11	-11	22
19	West Brom	25	2	8	15	-36	14
20	Sheffield United	25	3	2	20	-26	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+18	29
2	West Ham	13	7	3	3	+6	24
3	Liverpool	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+12	22
5	Leicester	12	6	1	5	+3	19
6	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
7	Man United	12	5	3	4	+7	18
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
11	Aston Villa	11	5	1	5	+4	16
12	Burnley	13	4	4	5	-4	16
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	14
16	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
17	Brighton	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-9	10
19	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7
20	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
2	Leicester	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Man United	12	8	4	0	+12	28
4	Everton	12	8	2	2	+7	26
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+4	21
6	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	Aston Villa	12	6	2	4	+7	20
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+6	18
9	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	+5	17
11	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
12	Brighton	12	4	4	4	-1	16
13	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Crystal Palace	12	4	2	6	-8	14
15	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-10	13
16	Fulham	12	2	6	4	-2	12
17	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
18	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-9	11
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.