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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

S U T T T

1–3

Full-time

Leeds

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

This season — Championship · 44/44 matches

Win Ø 48%

36%

59%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

52%

32%

Both score Ø 48%

59%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 7

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 12. · Leeds 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	44	26	9	9	+36	87
2	West Brom	45	22	16	7	+32	82
3	Fulham	42	22	10	10	+15	76
4	Brentford	42	21	9	12	+37	72
5	Nott'm Forest	44	18	16	10	+12	70
6	Cardiff	43	18	15	10	+9	69
7	Swansea	43	17	16	10	+11	67
8	Preston	45	18	11	16	+5	65
9	Millwall	45	16	17	12	+3	65
10	Blackburn	45	17	12	16	+4	63
11	Bristol City	45	17	11	17	-5	62
12	Derby	44	16	13	15	-2	61
13	Wigan	45	15	13	17	+1	58
14	QPR	45	16	9	20	-9	57
15	Reading	45	15	11	19	+4	56
16	Sheffield Weds	45	15	11	19	-7	56
17	Stoke	45	15	8	22	-9	53
18	Huddersfield	45	13	12	20	-15	51
19	Middlesbrough	45	12	14	19	-14	50
20	Birmingham	45	12	14	19	-19	50
21	Charlton	45	12	12	21	-11	48
22	Luton	45	13	9	23	-29	48
23	Hull	45	12	9	24	-27	45
24	Barnsley	44	10	13	21	-22	43

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	22	14	5	3	+22	47
2	Fulham	22	14	2	6	+12	44
3	Brentford	20	12	5	3	+24	41
4	Derby	22	11	8	3	+14	41
5	Preston	23	12	4	7	+10	40
6	West Brom	22	10	9	3	+17	39
7	Blackburn	23	10	9	4	+9	39
8	Cardiff	21	10	8	3	+11	38
9	Stoke	23	11	3	9	+10	36
10	Wigan	22	10	6	6	+10	36
11	Swansea	22	10	5	7	+7	35
12	Millwall	22	9	8	5	+5	35
13	Nott'm Forest	22	10	5	7	+3	35
14	QPR	23	9	5	9	+0	32
15	Charlton	23	8	6	9	+1	30
16	Bristol City	22	8	6	8	-3	30
17	Huddersfield	23	8	6	9	-4	30
18	Luton	22	7	7	8	-5	28
19	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	-10	28
20	Barnsley	22	6	9	7	-5	27
21	Middlesbrough	23	6	8	9	-9	26
22	Reading	22	7	4	11	-5	25
23	Birmingham	22	6	7	9	-7	25
24	Hull	23	7	3	13	-8	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	23	12	7	4	+15	43
2	Leeds	22	12	4	6	+14	40
3	Nott'm Forest	22	8	11	3	+9	35
4	Swansea	21	7	11	3	+4	32
5	Fulham	20	8	8	4	+3	32
6	Bristol City	23	9	5	9	-2	32
7	Brentford	22	9	4	9	+13	31
8	Reading	23	8	7	8	+9	31
9	Cardiff	22	8	7	7	-2	31
10	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-2	30
11	Sheffield Weds	23	8	4	11	+3	28
12	Preston	22	6	7	9	-5	25
13	QPR	22	7	4	11	-9	25
14	Birmingham	23	6	7	10	-12	25
15	Blackburn	22	7	3	12	-5	24
16	Middlesbrough	22	6	6	10	-5	24
17	Wigan	23	5	7	11	-9	22
18	Huddersfield	22	5	6	11	-11	21
19	Hull	22	5	6	11	-19	21
20	Derby	22	5	5	12	-16	20
21	Luton	23	6	2	15	-24	20
22	Charlton	22	4	6	12	-12	18
23	Stoke	22	4	5	13	-19	17
24	Barnsley	22	4	4	14	-17	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.