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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Leeds

S S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Derby

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

71%

14%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

29%

71%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,4

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 1. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Swansea	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Charlton	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Bristol City	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Preston	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+3	13
7	QPR	7	4	1	2	+1	13
8	Birmingham	7	4	1	2	-1	13
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Sheffield Weds	7	4	0	3	+4	12
11	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+5	10
12	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Middlesbrough	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Millwall	7	2	3	2	-4	9
15	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
16	Luton	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Reading	7	2	1	4	-1	7
18	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
19	Derby	7	1	4	2	-3	7
20	Hull	7	1	3	3	-3	6
21	Wigan	7	1	2	4	-7	5
22	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-7	5
23	Huddersfield	7	0	1	6	-8	1
24	Stoke	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Swansea	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+2	4
14	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	4
15	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Wigan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Hull	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Barnsley	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Huddersfield	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Bristol City	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Nott'm Forest	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Sheffield Weds	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
9	Birmingham	4	2	0	2	-4	6
10	Reading	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Derby	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Luton	4	1	0	3	-1	3
14	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Hull	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Wigan	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.