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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Luton

U S S U T

1–0

Full-time

Reading

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Championship · 45/47 matches

Win Ø 39%

47%

30%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

51%

60%

Both score Ø 51%

44%

57%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

16 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 7. · Reading 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	47	29	9	9	+69	96
2	Bournemouth	47	24	15	8	+34	87
3	Nott'm Forest	44	24	8	12	+34	80
4	Huddersfield	44	22	13	9	+18	79
5	Sheffield United	45	22	10	13	+20	76
6	Middlesbrough	47	22	10	15	+18	76
7	Luton	45	21	12	12	+12	75
8	Millwall	47	19	15	13	+11	72
9	West Brom	47	19	13	15	+7	70
10	Blackburn	47	19	12	16	+11	69
11	Coventry	47	19	12	16	+7	69
12	Swansea	47	18	13	16	-5	67
13	Preston	47	17	16	14	-5	67
14	Stoke	47	18	11	18	+7	65
15	Blackpool	47	17	12	18	-2	63
16	QPR	47	18	9	20	-3	63
17	Bristol City	47	16	11	20	-12	59
18	Derby	47	15	13	19	-7	58
19	Cardiff	47	15	9	23	-15	54
20	Hull	47	15	8	24	-11	53
21	Reading	47	14	9	24	-30	51
22	Birmingham	47	11	15	21	-27	48
23	Peterboro	46	9	10	27	-44	37
24	Peterborough	45	8	10	27	-49	34
25	Barnsley	47	6	13	28	-38	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	24	15	4	5	+37	49
2	Millwall	24	14	6	4	+19	48
3	Middlesbrough	24	15	2	7	+15	47
4	Nott'm Forest	23	14	3	6	+23	45
5	Bournemouth	23	12	8	3	+19	44
6	West Brom	23	12	8	3	+16	44
7	Blackburn	24	13	5	6	+14	44
8	Sheffield United	22	13	4	5	+23	43
9	Derby	23	12	7	4	+10	43
10	Luton	22	12	6	4	+17	42
11	Huddersfield	21	12	6	3	+13	42
12	Blackpool	24	12	3	9	+5	39
13	Coventry	24	11	5	8	+9	38
14	Swansea	23	10	8	5	+7	38
15	Stoke	23	11	4	8	+9	37
16	Preston	23	9	10	4	+3	37
17	QPR	24	10	6	8	+3	36
18	Bristol City	24	8	9	7	+4	33
19	Reading	24	8	5	11	-9	29
20	Cardiff	24	8	4	12	-3	28
21	Birmingham	23	7	7	9	-5	28
22	Peterboro	23	6	7	10	-6	25
23	Hull	23	7	3	13	-7	24
24	Peterborough	22	5	7	10	-11	22
25	Barnsley	24	5	7	12	-13	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	23	14	5	4	+32	47
2	Bournemouth	24	12	7	5	+15	43
3	Huddersfield	23	10	7	6	+5	37
4	Nott'm Forest	21	10	5	6	+11	35
5	Sheffield United	23	9	6	8	-3	33
6	Luton	23	9	6	8	-5	33
7	Coventry	23	8	7	8	-2	31
8	Preston	24	8	6	10	-8	30
9	Middlesbrough	23	7	8	8	+3	29
10	Hull	24	8	5	11	-4	29
11	Swansea	24	8	5	11	-12	29
12	Stoke	24	7	7	10	-2	28
13	QPR	23	8	3	12	-6	27
14	West Brom	24	7	5	12	-9	26
15	Cardiff	23	7	5	11	-12	26
16	Bristol City	23	8	2	13	-16	26
17	Blackburn	23	6	7	10	-3	25
18	Blackpool	23	5	9	9	-7	24
19	Millwall	23	5	9	9	-8	24
20	Reading	23	6	4	13	-21	22
21	Birmingham	24	4	8	12	-22	20
22	Derby	24	3	6	15	-17	15
23	Peterboro	23	3	3	17	-38	12
24	Peterborough	23	3	3	17	-38	12
25	Barnsley	23	1	6	16	-25	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.