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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Hoffenheim

T T U U T

2–4

Full-time

Leverkusen

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 47%

41%

53%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

66%

Both score Ø 61%

56%

66%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 8. · Leverkusen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	24	3	5	+60	75
2	Dortmund	32	20	3	9	+30	63
3	Leverkusen	32	17	7	8	+30	58
4	Freiburg	32	15	10	7	+16	55
5	RB Leipzig	32	16	6	10	+31	54
6	FC Koln	32	14	10	8	+5	52
7	Union Berlin	32	14	9	9	+2	51
8	Hoffenheim	32	13	7	12	+4	46
9	Mainz	32	12	6	14	+4	42
10	Bochum	33	12	6	15	-13	42
11	M'gladbach	32	11	8	13	-11	41
12	Ein Frankfurt	32	10	10	12	-4	40
13	Wolfsburg	32	11	5	16	-12	38
14	Augsburg	32	9	8	15	-14	35
15	Hertha	32	9	6	17	-32	33
16	Stuttgart	32	6	11	15	-19	29
17	Bielefeld	33	5	12	16	-26	27
18	Greuther Furth	32	3	9	20	-51	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+33	40
2	Dortmund	16	12	0	4	+23	36
3	Mainz	16	10	4	2	+22	34
4	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+22	32
5	Union Berlin	16	9	5	2	+7	32
6	FC Koln	16	9	4	3	+7	31
7	Leverkusen	16	9	2	5	+15	29
8	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+10	29
9	Hoffenheim	16	8	4	4	+12	28
10	Bochum	17	8	4	5	+4	28
11	M'gladbach	16	7	4	5	+2	25
12	Wolfsburg	16	7	2	7	+4	23
13	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-2	22
14	Hertha	16	6	3	7	-8	21
15	Stuttgart	16	5	4	7	-5	19
16	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	6	6	-2	18
17	Bielefeld	16	2	9	5	-8	15
18	Greuther Furth	16	3	5	8	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	2	3	+27	35
2	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+15	29
3	Dortmund	16	8	3	5	+7	27
4	Freiburg	16	7	5	4	+6	26
5	RB Leipzig	16	6	4	6	+9	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	4	6	-2	22
7	FC Koln	16	5	6	5	-2	21
8	Union Berlin	16	5	4	7	-5	19
9	Hoffenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
10	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-13	16
11	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-16	15
12	Bochum	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-12	13
14	Bielefeld	17	3	3	11	-18	12
15	Hertha	16	3	3	10	-24	12
16	Stuttgart	16	1	7	8	-14	10
17	Mainz	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Greuther Furth	16	0	4	12	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.