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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Watford

T U S U T

2–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

25%

13%

Points per game

1,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

25%

63%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,45 xG 1,03

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 16. · Middlesbrough 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	8	7	0	1	+9	+6.9	21
2	Ipswich	8	7	0	1	+7	+5.5	21
3	Preston	8	6	2	0	+7	+0.6	20
4	Sunderland	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.5	16
5	Hull	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.1	15
6	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+4	+4.1	13
7	Cardiff	8	4	1	3	+2	+2.0	13
8	Norwich	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.8	13
9	Southampton	9	4	1	4	-5	-1.5	13
10	Bristol City	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.4	12
11	Birmingham	8	3	3	2	+1	+4.5	12
12	Millwall	8	3	2	3	-1	-5.0	11
13	Plymouth	8	3	1	4	+3	-1.9	10
14	West Brom	8	2	4	2	+1	-3.6	10
15	Blackburn	8	3	1	4	-4	-0.3	10
16	Watford	8	2	3	3	+1	+0.2	9
17	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-4	-4.5	9
18	Coventry	8	1	5	2	+1	+2.1	8
19	QPR	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.4	8
20	Stoke	8	2	1	5	-4	+2.2	7
21	Swansea	8	1	3	4	-2	-0.1	6
22	Middlesbrough	8	1	2	5	-8	+3.8	5
23	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-9	-9.9	5
24	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-12	-6.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	4	4	0	0	+4	-1.1	12
2	Plymouth	4	3	0	1	+8	+0.3	9
3	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	+5.1	9
4	Cardiff	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
5	Norwich	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.4	9
6	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.2	9
7	Watford	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.5	8
8	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.5	8
9	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
10	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.4	7
11	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+4	+1.9	6
12	Coventry	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.3	6
13	Leeds	4	1	3	0	+3	+4.1	6
14	Hull	4	1	3	0	+2	-0.2	6
15	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.1	6
16	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.2	6
17	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.6	6
18	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
19	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.8	5
20	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	+0	-5.1	5
21	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	-2	+2.6	4
22	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.1	4
23	QPR	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
24	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-6	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+7	+4.7	12
2	Ipswich	4	4	0	0	+4	+0.4	12
3	Sunderland	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
4	Hull	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.9	9
5	Preston	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
6	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
7	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
8	QPR	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.7	7
9	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.1	6
10	Huddersfield	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.3	5
11	Millwall	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.7	5
12	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
13	Cardiff	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
14	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
15	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.9	4
16	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.6	3
17	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.2	2
18	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.9	1
19	Watford	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
20	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-4	+1.1	1
21	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.3	1
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-6	+1.2	1
23	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.