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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Sp Braga
S S S S S
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,7
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/2 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,54 xG 0,89
48% Possession 52%
16 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 6
7 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Braga Real Madrid
16′
⚽ Rodrygo 0–1
Half-time 0–2
61′
⚽ J. Bellingham 0–2
Vinícius Júnior
1–2 Álvaro Djaló ⚽
S. Banza
63′
Bruma 🔁
↦ Vitor Carvalho
66′
Abel Ruiz 🔁
↦ S. Banza
67′
71′
🔁 A. Tchouaméni
↦ Rodrygo
72′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
Diogo Fonseca 🔁
↦ J. Mendes
73′
75′
🔁 F. Mendy
↦ Fran García
João Moutinho 🔁
↦ Al Musrati
78′
89′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ J. Bellingham
93′
🟨 Nacho Fernández
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
17 J. Mendes D
5 S. Saatçı D
4 S. Niakaté D
26 C. Borja D
18 Vitor Carvalho M
8 Al Musrati M
21 Ricardo Horta M
16 R. Zalazar M
14 Álvaro Djaló M
23 S. Banza F
Bench (12)
7 Bruma
9 Abel Ruiz
47 Diogo Fonseca
28 João Moutinho
15 Paulo Oliveira
6 José Fonte
20 Rony Lopes
10 André Horta
91 L. Horníček
88 Castro
22 Pizzi
19 Adrián Marín

Coach: Artur Jorge

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
25 Kepa G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
20 Fran García D
15 F. Valverde M
12 E. Camavinga M
10 L. Modrić M
5 J. Bellingham M
11 Rodrygo F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (8)
18 A. Tchouaméni
23 F. Mendy
17 Lucas Vázquez
21 Brahim Díaz
26 Diego Piñeiro
13 A. Lunin
8 T. Kroos
4 D. Alaba

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.